Stock market today: Gift Nifty up 74 pts; Key levels to watch for Nifty, Sensex, Nifty Bank

Indian benchmark indices are set to open higher on Thursday after a US federal court blocked President Donald Trump's 'Liberation Day' tariffs from going into effect. However, volatility is likely to remain high amid monthly expiry of the May series F&O contracts. Besides this, Elon Musk has resigned as DOGE chief.

Nifty futures on the NSE International Exchange traded 73.50 points, or 0.29 per cent, higher at 24,835, hinting at a positive start for the domestic market on Thursday. Asian shares and Wall Street futures jumped in Asia on Thursday. KOSPI gained 1.71 per cent, while Nikkei jumped 1.65 per cent. Hang Seng added half-a-per cent.

Investors awaited macro data including India’s Industrial Production (IIP) for April and US Fed's meeting minutes, both scheduled for release later on Wednesday, said Siddhartha Khemka, Head - Research of Motilal Oswal Financial Services.

"There is continued focus on developments in US-India trade talks, which could provide short –term directional cues for the Indian markets," he said. "Overall, we expect the market to remain in a consolidation phase with selective buying, as investors weigh upcoming data and global developments."

Wall Street stocks closed lower on Wednesday as investors digested minutes from the last Federal Reserve meeting. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 244.95 points, or 0.58 per cent, to 42,098.70, the S&P 500 lost 32.99 points, or 0.56 per cent, to 5,888.55 and the Nasdaq Composite declined 98.23 points, or 0.51 per cent, to 19,100.94.

The US dollar rallied sharply on Thursday, with the currency surging against the euro, yen and Swiss franc in particular. The dollar index climbed back above 100 for the first time in a week and was last at 100.40. In commodity markets, gold slipped 0.9 per cent to $3,259 an ounce .

Oil prices rose on Thursday after a US court blocked President Donald Trump's tariffs from taking effect, while the market was watching out for potential new US sanctions curbing Russian crude flows and an OPEC+ decision on hiking output in July. Brent crude futures climbed 1.25 per cent to $65.71 a barrel. US West Texas Intermediate crude advanced 1.34 per cent to $62.62 a barrel.

Despite stable global cues and favorable domestic factors, the market is being weighed down by inconsistent FII inflows, which is reflected in the recent increase in volatility, said Ajit Mishra, SVP of Research at Religare Broking. "However, traders should maintain a positive bias, focusing on sectors and themes that are witnessing noticeable buying interest," he said.

Provisional data available with NSE suggest that FPIs turned net buyers of domestic stocks to the tune of Rs 4,662.92 crore on Wednesday. On the other hand, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) turned buyers of Indian equities to the tune of Rs 7,911.99 crore on a net-net basis

Nifty & Sensex outlook
Nifty50 remained largely range-bound ahead of the monthly expiry. On the hourly chart, it has slipped below the critical 21-EMA and 50-EMA, indicating a weakening trend in the near term, said Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities. "Immediate support is seen at 24,700; a sustained move below this level could trigger further selling pressure," he said.

Shrikant Chouhan, Head Equity Research at Kotak Securities believe that the intraday market texture is non-directional and perhaps traders are waiting for a breakout on either side. "For day traders, now, 24,850/81,600 would be the immediate breakout level. Above this, the market is likely to retest the levels of 25,000/82,100–25,100/82,500," he said.

Nifty Bank outlook
Nifty Bank continues to trade within a well-defined consolidation zone that has held for nearly three weeks, with intraday moves failing to make a decisive breakout, said Om Mehra, Technical Research Analyst, SAMCO Securities. A breakout above 55,900 would signal fresh bullish momentum, with the potential to test lifetime highs, he said.

"The index remains supported above its rising trendline on the daily chart and the midline of the Bollinger Bands, indicating that short-term support is still intact. The resistance remains near the upper band, around 55,900, which may limit the upside attempts," Mehra said.

Bajaj Broking expects Nifty Bank  to extend the consolidation in the broad range of 56,000-53,500. Only a move above 56,000 levels will signal acceleration of the up move towards 56,700 levels in the coming sessions. Immediate support is placed at 54,800 levels while the short-term support is seen at 54,000-53,500 being the confluence of key retracement and 50 days EMA, it said.