Adani Power, Adani Green Energy, Adani Total Gas: What Ventura says post Q4 results

Ventura Securities has come out with reports on Adani Power Ltd, Adani Green Energy and Adani Total Gas Ltd post the three Adani group firms' March quarter results. In the case of Adani Power, Ventura said Q4 profit fell as higher profit in the year-ago quarter was primarily attributable to non-cash reversals, resulting from the effective implementation of the scheme of amalgamation.

In the case of Adani Green Energy, Ventura said revenue, Ebitda and PAT appeared to have fallen as AGEL received significant amounts due to past period tariff differentials and late payment surcharges, resulting from the resolution of tariff disputes with some customers in the previous fiscal year.

In the case of Adani Total Gas, Ventura said the company continued its positive financial trajectory.

Adani Power
Ventura said there was a notable decline in profit (down 47.8 per cent) YoY, as the higher profit in the fourth quarter of FY23 was primarily attributable to non-cash reversals resulting from the effective implementation of the Scheme of Amalgamation.

In Q4FY24, the consolidated power sale volume reached 22.1 billion units (BU), up 55 per cent YoY. For the entire FY24, the volume stood at 79.3 BU, reflecting a notable surge of 48 per cent YoY.

"This remarkable growth can be attributed to several factors including enhanced power demand, reduced import coal prices, and the expansion of installed capacity, collectively contributing to the impressive uptick in power sale," Ventura said.

In Q4FY24, the consolidated plant load factor (PLF) reached 72 per cent, while for the entire FY24, it stood at 65 per cent.

"The substantial improvement in PLF is attributed to the strategic advantages leveraged by the company, enabling the realisation of the full potential presented by the growth in demand," it said.

Operational capacity stood at 12,450 MW and 1,600 MW is under development, Adani Power has initiated development of a 2x800 MW (1600 MW) Ultra-supercritical thermal power project as Phase-II expansion of its existing 600 MW capacity at Raigarh, Chhattisgarh, the brokerage said.

Adani Total Gas
Ventura said Adani Total Gas' primary focus at present revolves around facilitating easy access to natural gas through both Piped Natural Gas (PNG) and Compressed Natural Gas (CNG). This objective is being expedited through accelerated infrastructure development across all geographical areas, it said.

It forecast revenue, Ebitda and profit to grow at a CAGR of 25.3 per cent, 39.9 per cent and 42.6 per cent to Rs 8,600 crore, Rs 2,383 crore and Rs 1,535 crore, respectively, over FY23-FY26.

"Margins and PAT are also expected to improve by 780 basis points and 570 bps to 27.7 per cent and 17.8 per cent, respectively, over the forecast period. Consequently return ratios ROE and ROIC are set to expand to 26.1 per cent/31 per cent," it said.

Adani Green Energy
Ventura said run-rate Ebitda for Adani Green Energy stands at a strong Rs 10,462 crore with net debt to run-rate Ebitda at 4 times as of March 2024 compared with 5.4 times last year. The robust growth in revenue and Ebitda was primarily driven by greenfield capacity addition of 2,848 MW over the last one year, consistent CUF for Solar portfolio and improved for Wind and Hybrid portfolio, it said.

For the quarter, Adani Green Energy achieved a 18.5 per cent YoY revenue growth amounting to Rs 9,234 crore. This growth was fueled by a 33.2% increase in revenue from sale of power to Rs 7,735 crore, Ventura said.