Akshaya Tritiya 2025: Gold at Rs 1.10 lakh? Return history, triggers & more

Akshaya Tritiya 2025: Buying gold on Akshaya Tritiya, falling this time on Wednesday, April 30, is considered auspicious. If one go by what commodity analysts say, there is more legs to the ongoing yellow gold rally. Analysts see gold in the range of Rs 1.06-1.10 lakh per 10 gram levels going ahead. They said it would be prudent for investors to buy gold at corrections. 

The prevailing US-China trade tensions, central bank purchases, a correction in the dollar index, and geopolitical tensions are seen as positives for gold prices.  

To be sure, the ongoing rally that started since May 2024 has lasted for 130 weeks. The past rallies since 1975 -- with the exception of 1983 that lasted only for 34 weeks--  lasted for 146 -241 weeks, said Anitha Rangan, Economist, Equirus Securities. 

"This time it is both, reserves + uncertainty are driving the rally. Perhaps gold could have more legs in this rally. Or at least we would not see any meaningful reversal unless uncertainty simmers. For India, domestic prices, rupee depreciation will be another factor which will keep gold price rise intact," Ragan said.

The first four months of 2025 have marked one of the strongest starts for gold investors in over a decade, with prices rising nearly 25 per cent so far. 

MOFSL said it continues to maintain 'Buy on dips' on gold, wherein investors can start accumulating near Rs 90,000-91,000 for the long term targets of Rs 1,06,000.

Deveya Gaglani of Axis Securities noted that many investors choose to buy gold on Akshaya Tritiya, which is considered an auspicious day for purchasing gold as a symbol of wealth and security. 

He recommended investors to consider buying gold in a staggered manner if prices correct by 5-10 per cent. he felt the risk-reward ratio is unfavorable at these record levels. 

"In a bullish scenario, if prices hold above 100,000, they could reach 1,10,000 by the next Akshaya Tritiya. Conversely, we expect prices to consolidate around the 87,000 level on the downside,” he said.

Akshaya Tritiya historical returns 

Data showed investors who invested in gold last year on Akshaya Tritiya have enjoyed a substantial return of more than 31 per cent.

"Comparing gold returns over the last 15 years for Akshaya Tritiya, gold has delivered a 10 per cent CAGR. There have been instances of some price correction, but overall rise in prices have been consistent and steady," said MOFSL.

The brokerage said there are several platforms for market participants to invest in gold based on their risk profile. 

"Investment can be in form of ETF which is now a very popular way of investments, exchange traded derivatives, Digital Gold and Physical bars and coins," it said.

Portfolio diversification

Portfolios with just a 5–10 per cent allocation to gold often achieve better risk-adjusted returns than equity-only portfolios.

According to Capitalmind Financial Services, 50:50 portfolio of Gold and the Nifty 50, rebalanced annually, outperformed standalone investments in either asset over more than two decades. 

"This counterintuitive result underscores the Lindy Effect in action—where longevity and resilience in systems or strategies increase their likelihood of enduring success," the brokearge said.