BPCL shares up 5% as stock analysts raise target prices on robust Q4 GRM

Shares of BPCL climbed 6 per cent in Monday's trade as a robust gross refining margin (GRM) drive significant earnings beat, leading to raising of target prices by stock analysts.  BPCL’s Q4FY25 performance was much better than expected, said Emkay Global even as standalone Ebitda and profit fell 15 per cent  and 18 per cent YoY. This was due to reported GRM of $9.2 per barrel against it's expectation of $6 per barrel. 

"Implied marketing margin was also higher, by 2 per cent at Rs6.3 per kg, backed by higher other product margins. LPG loss was contained, rising only 4 per cent QoQ to Rs 3,200 crore despite higher international prices," the brokerage said as it raised its March 2026E target price by 7 per cent to Rs 400 on BPCL. 

Antique Stock Broking has raised its FY26/27 Ebitda estimates by 2 per cent each on higher refining throughput, cut in net debt, likely LPG compensation, and lower crude price assumption of $65 per barrel. 

"We remain constructive on the stock with an expected LPG compensation likely over the next 3–4 months and estimate 3.5 per cent Ebitda CAGR over FY25–27E. Maintain BUY with a revised target of Rs 445 (earlier Rs 425," it said.

For MOFSL, BPCL delivered a 46 per cent beat on Ebitda in 4QFY25, driven by higher-than-estimated GRM and marketing margins. While BPCL booked an exceptional loss of Rs 1,770 crore due to the impairment of investment in BPRL, adjusted PAT was 71 per cent above MOFSL's estimates. 

That said, this brokerage continue to prefer HPCL over BPCL. It said BPCL is currently trading at 1.5 times 1-year forward book value against a 10-year average of 1.8 times. "We maintain our Neutral rating on the stock with a revised target of Rs 300," MOFSL said.