ideaForge Technology shares up 40% in 3 days; should you buy, hold or sell stock?

Shares of ideaForge Technology Ltd rallied 8 per cent in Monday's trade, taking its three-day rise to 40 per cent amid hopes demand for drone systems may improve following India-Pakistan hostilities.   

To be sure, ideaForge Technology reported order inflows of Rs 13.20 crore in the March quarter, with its order book standing at mere Rs 13.60 crore against Rs 120 crore in the year-ago quarter. The company is L1 in orders worth Rs 400 crore, but has been witnessing delays in finalisation of orders. 

The stock hit a high of Rs 500 today, up 7.94 per cent. It has climbed 39.64 per cent since its May 7 closing of Rs 358.05 a piece. JM Financial has a target price of Rs 505 on IdeaForge, as it downgraded the stock to 'HOLD' from 'Buy' after the company's Q4 results. The target suggests upside is called on the stock. 

IdeaForge Technology recently unveiled two new categories of drones: 1) ZOLT - a tactical UAV and 2) YETI - for Logistics, unlocking new opportunities. The company earlier had also launched the nextgen UAV platforms NETRA 5 and Switch V2 and is ready for customer demonstrations.

"Finalisation of L1 orders and new ordering activity for large ticket size order continue to witness delays. Near-term revenue and inflows will be driven by the run rate business, which comprises orders from the civil segment, police force, central armed forces, spares, etc, while big ticket size orders from the government are expected to start kicking from FY26," JM Financial said.

Arihant Capital Markets said the emergency procurement cycle, announced in January 2025, focused on counterinsurgency and counterterrorism operations. The company participated in trials, and orders are expected in early Q2FY26E, it said.

Each tender is capped at Rs 300 crore, and delivery time is around 12 months from the order date, Arihant Capital Markets said.

JM said IdeaForge's long-term prospects are strong due to its core strength of technical know-how and new technology and product development capability. That said, near-time performance could be be impacted due to lower opening order book, delayed ordering activity, delayed finalisation of L1 orders and dependence on the run rate business i.e. low ticket-size orders.