Jindal Stainless shares: Nuvama cuts target price but retains 'Buy' on stock; here's why

Nuvama Institutional Equities has cut its target price on Jindal Stainless Ltd to Rs 723 from Rs 836, following its meeting with the company management. The domestic brokerage said Jindal Stainless is dealing with weak export demand and high imports, which is affecting its margins. The downside revision in stock price target came amid Jindal Steel's conservative growth guidance and deferred expansion plans. The brokerage, however, maintained its 'Buy' rating on the stock. 

Jindal Stainless, a leading player in the stainless steel industry, is currently navigating a challenging period marked by subdued export demand and an influx of imports, both of which have pressured the company's margins. In a meeting with Jindal Stainless' Managing Director Abhyuday Jindal and senior management, domestic brokerage firm Nuvama outlined the company's strategic response. 

The management has adopted a conservative outlook for the financial year FY26, anticipating a 9 per cent to 10 per cent volume growth while projecting consolidated Ebitda per tonne between Rs 19,000 and Rs 21,000. For Q4FY25, the company expects Ebitda per tonne to be approximately Rs 16,000, reflecting ongoing pressures from the external market environment. 

The challenging market conditions have forced Jindal Stainless to divert volumes to lower-margin segments, further impacting profitability. The company's decision to postpone the establishment of its downstream operations in Jaipur by 8 to 9 months, which was initially expected to be operational by the first half of FY27, underscores the need to adapt to current market dynamics. 

Nuvama, taking into account these developments, noted a downward revision of the company's Ebitda estimates for FY25, FY26, and FY27 by 5 per cent, 10 per cent, and 13 per cent, respectively, as a result of lowered expectations for both volume and profit margins. 

Nuvama's revised outlook suggests that Jindal Stainless' stock is likely to remain under pressure in the short term. Despite these headwinds, the brokerage has maintained a 'Buy' rating on the stock, albeit with a lowered target price of Rs 723, down from the previous Rs 836. This adjustment reflects the anticipated challenges in the company's operational environment, driven by the ongoing issues with exports and imports that require strategic realignment in product focus and market positioning. [3]

The broader implications of these adjustments highlight a significant strategic recalibration for Jindal Stainless as it seeks to navigate the turbulent waters of the stainless steel market. The company's conservative guidance on volume growth, alongside financial constraints, suggests a cautious approach to future investments and expansion plans. This is further evidenced by the deferral of the Jaipur project, which was initially aimed at enhancing downstream capabilities and broadening the company's market footprint.