MCX shares up 113% in 1 year, 560% in 5 years; stock still a buy?

Shares of multibagger Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd (MCX) are up 113 per cent in the one-year period and 560 per cent in the past five years. If one goes by what ICICI Securities says, heightened commodity volatility and new product launches may provide tailwind to MCX earnings and its valuation multiples going ahead. For now, the brokerage has revised upward its target price on MCX to Rs 8,800 from Rs 6,138 earlier, suggesting a single-digit return ahead.  

ICICI Securities has upgraded its earnings and valuation multiples for MCX, factoring in the positive impact of new product launches and rising market participation. Reflecting the current momentum in trading volumes, it also revised its volume estimates upward for both futures and options.

For futures, it sees average daily traded value (ADTV) of Rs 42,000 crore for FY26E and Rs 47,500 crore for FY27E, compared to the FY26 year-to-date (YTD) ADTV of Rs 40,600 crore.

For options, ICICI Securities estimated notional ADTV at Rs 3.1 lakh crore in FY26E and Rs 4.2 lakh crore in FY27, with premium ADTV expected to reach Rs 4,950 crore and Rs 6,550 crore, respectively. This compares with current FY26 YTD notional and premium ADTV of Rs 2.6 lakh crore and Rs 42.6 lakh crore.

It maintained ADD on MCX basis 45 times (earlier 40 times) FY27E adjusted EPS of Rs 190.90 (earlier Rs 146.60) while adding free cash of Rs 211/share. 

"Our target price is revised to Rs 8,800. Our positive stance on MCX is based on strong uptick in volumes since the start of FY26, possible uptick in volumes arising from newer products such as silver monthly
options, crude weekly options and electricity futures and the rise in commodity volatility against current backdrop of global geopolitical tensions," ICICI Securities said.

The domestic brokerage noted that gold options’ contracts were modified to monthly expiry contracts (prior bi-monthly), effective November 11, 2024. Post this change, gold options have seen a strong surge in volumes where notional/premium/futures ADTV increased 218 per cent/283 per cent/161 per cent in the first two months of FY26 against FY25. 

MCX has conducted a similar change in silver options to monthly expiry, effective June 2025. "MCX’s silver mini options recorded an unprecedented notional turnover of Rs 17,300 crore/Rs 38,200 crore on 18th/19th June 2025. For comparison, the notional ADTV of the silver mini options in April 2025 was Rs 3,400 crore," ICICI Securities.