Nifty50 to scale 24,200-24,800 levels in next 3-4 months? Deven Choksey answers

Deven Choksey, MD of DR Choksey FinServ on Thursday reaffirmed that the market is on the course of recovery and could see a decent bounce back. "The FPI (Foreign portfolio investor) selling happened largely because of the rupee devaluation against the US dollar. Now, the dollar strengthening itself is doubted largely because of the fact that the tariff implementation is a subject which is getting postponed and most likely I think it will have to be calibrated if not completely written off," he told Business Today.

The market expert also suggested that the dollar may not remain as firm as it was post-(US President Donald) Trump taking office. "If the FPI selling stops and Indian domestic flows of savings, discretionary consumption continues in the economy, the fourth quarter (Q4 FY25) appears to be a distinctly better quarter compared to the last two quarters," Choksey stated.

The market veteran mentioned that most of the short-covering in the domestic market had to be covered and that is happening in the first phase of the rally. "Maybe 24,200-24,800 could be a possibility for benchmark Nifty50 going forward in the next 3-4 months. So, I think one should possibly consider that as a level to target," he added.

In response to a query on the technology pack, Choksey said, "I expect most of the IT companies to remain a little bit of cautious but they are not going to bring down their guidance. This is important to understand as if they are not bringing down the guidance, it implies that they are working to bring up a higher amount of growth in the industry in the subsequent quarters. If that is a reality, we are likely to see a gradual upside in the IT sector and also the fact that most of the global corporates will have no choice but to shift to the space like computing or twin digital or AI (artificial intelligence). In my view point, it's a calibrated upmove that one can expect in IT companies' earning forecast going forward."

When asked about banks and financials, the market specialist underscored that corporate banks, large NBFCs (non-banking financial companies) and housing finance companies would be a really good choice to begin with. "Some changes are also happening in the insurance businesses, particularly LIC's likely entry into health insurance. This could be a good sign for the insurance sector as a whole. Of course, the Bajaj Insurance companies and Allianz breakup is also a positive sign because that will probably allow both the players to track their own course in a very systematic manner, particularly for Bajaj who has been in the business for the last 20 years. I think Bajaj will have relatively better times going forward in the insurance business. We remain distinctly positive about the corporate banks, housing finance businesses, large NBFCs and insurance companies. Insurance firms are likely to chart a growth path which may be superior compared to the previous 20 years over the next 10 years," he stated.

On the defence pack, Choksey said, "People have started buying the momentum. They are buying momentum in the name of growth. But, I think the growth rate is not supporting the valuation."