PVR Inox share: Will Chhaava, promoter buying, strong Q4 push this stock higher?

PVR Inox Ltd shares might have fallen 32 per cent year-to-date, Nuvama Institutional Equities believes there are a few notable triggers for the stock ahead. It noted that Hindi cinema industry made a recovery this quarter with Chhaava and Q4 is likely to be solid for the multiplex owner. The recent promoter buying and a strong Hollywood line-up are all positives for the stock, the domestic brokerage said.

Nuvama suggested a 'Buy' rating on the stock with a target of Rs 1,765.

After a weak 2024, Calendar 2025 has started on an exciting note—an impressive start to CY25, as Chhaava drove a 39 per cent YoY jump in box office collection in January and February to Rs 2,264 crore. February has been the highest-grossing February post-pandemic for the industry with box office collections of Rs 1,245 crore.

"The Hindi movie industry, which has been struggling, has seen a revival; consistency will be important to track (Chhaava made up 53 per cent of Feb-25). This highlights audiences are eager to watch in cinemas if the content is compelling. Recent promoter buying in PVR (although a small quantity) and an impressive Q4FY25 are notable triggers, not to mention a strong Hollywood line-up. Maintain 'BUY' with a TP of Rs 1,765," it said.

PVR Inox is is building up its asset-light growth strategy, particularly in South India, where it is expected to add 30–40 new screens, Nuvama noting that the multiplex owner signed 100 screens under its new capital-light growth model.

Out of this, 31 screens are under the management contract model and 69 under the asset-light model, wherein 42 per cent to up to 80 per cent of the capex would be borne by the developer. These newly planned screens are expected to be rolled out over two–three years, Nuvama said.

"The struggling Hindi movie industry has experienced a revival driven by the success of Chhaava. The industry remains lopsided, with audience preferences being highly selective, rewarding only high-quality content in the current slowdown in overall urban consumption. Chhaava’s success is even more impressive considering it has come through during the lower-performing exam season, further highlighting the pull of strong content in attracting moviegoers," Nuvama said.

Nuvama said the March quarter is expected to be better than its initial expectation. It said Sikandar, set for a release in the end of Q4FY25, is also anticipated to deliver strong opening numbers. The Hollywood movies pipeline includes Thunderbolts and First Steps, it noted.

The overall content pipeline for Hindi was subdued in 9MFY25, but the one for Q4FY25 is very strong. Q4FY25 is expected to see increased footfall and occupancy vis-a-vis Q3FY25, Nuvama. PVR Inox is on track to reach pre-Covid margins of 18 per cent as footfalls increase, Nuvama said.