Senco Gold shares rebounded 16% in 3 days; still down 51% year-to-date. Where's the stock headed?

Shares of Senco Gold Ltd extended their recovery mode to the third consecutive session in Thursday's trade. The stock climbed 5 per cent to hit its upper price band of Rs 274.80. At this price, it has rebounded 15.72 per cent in three trading days. Despite the mentioned uptick, the crisis-hit jewellery maker's scrip has still crashed 51.22 per cent in the calendar year 2025 so far due to weak December 2024 quarter numbers.

Senco's consolidated net profit tumbled 69.4 per cent to Rs 33.4 crore in Q3 FY25 compared to Rs 109.3 crore in the corresponding quarter a year ago. Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (Ebitda) slipped 56 per cent to Rs 79.96 crore in Q3 FY25 as against Rs 181.1 crore in the corresponding period of the last fiscal.

Bourses BSE and NSE have put the securities of Senco Gold under the short-term ASM (Additional Surveillance Measure) framework. Exchanges put stocks in short-term or long-term ASM frameworks to caution investors about high volatility in share prices.

In addition, BSE data showed that Jai Hanuman Shri Siddhivinayak Trust -- a promoter group entity of the retail jewellery chain -- picked up an additional 1.61 lakh shares and 80,400 shares on March 18 and March 19, respectively, increasing the holding to 41.31 per cent from 41.16 per cent earlier. Investors usually give a positive response to share purchases by the promoters.

A few analysts opined that market participants should remain 'cautious' at current levels, given the counter's recent downtrend. With that being said, at least two of them also said a decisive move above Rs 275 is required for more upside.

Osho Krishan, Senior Research Analyst - Technical & Derivatives at Angel One, said, "Senco faced a considerable decline in its stock performance. So, it would be prudent to exercise patience and remain on the sidelines until a clear and convincing sign of recovery emerges."

Sebi-registered research analyst AR Ramachandran said, "Investors should buy only if a daily close is above the resistance of Rs 275 which could lead it to a further upside target of Rs 333 in the near term."

Jigar S Patel, Senior Manager - Technical Research Analyst at Anand Rathi, said, "Support will be at Rs 240 and resistance at Rs 275. A decisive move above Rs 275 level can only trigger a further upside."

The scrip traded higher than the 5-day and 10-day simple moving averages (SMAs) but lower than the 20-day, 30-, 50-, 100-, 150-day and 200-day SMAs. Its 14-day relative strength index (RSI) came at 36.37. A level below 30 is defined as oversold while a value above 70 is considered overbought.

The stock has a price-to-equity (P/E) ratio of 16.02 against a price-to-book (P/B) value of 1.56. Earnings per share (EPS) stood at 17.15 with a return on equity (RoE) of 9.74.

As per the recent filing, total promoter and promoter group shareholding was at 64.22 per cent.