Sensex's average return in odd years at 27%; here's 2025 stock market outlook

If you believe in numerology, this data is for you. A study on Sensex returns based on last 46 years of data suggests that the likelihood of Sensex delivering stronger returns increase in odd years. The average gain for Sensex in 23 odd years stood at 26.56 per cent against 11.20 per cent average return in 23 even years.  

The median gain for Sensex stood at 18.74 per cent in odd years against 8.17 per cent in even years. 

Add to that the maximum return by Sensex in any odd year stood at 93.98 per cent against 50.68 per cent in the even year. The maximum fall for Sensex stood at 24.64 per cent in the odd year against 52.45 per cent in the even year. 

That said, Sensex ended higher in 17 in odd against 18 in even years in the last 46 years, with wining ratio for odd years standing at 73.91 per cent against 78.26 per cent for even years.  

"This data offers valuable insights, especially for those who consider or the influence of numbers in market trends. Odd years’ historical outperformance, coupled with the ongoing 9-year winning streak, raises a critical question: Will 2025 continue this trend and mark a record breaking 10th consecutive year of gains?," said SAMCO Securities.

Sensex delivered 8.17 per cent return in 2024, 18.74 per cent return in 2023, 4.44 per cent return in 2022, 21.99 per cent return in 2021 and 15.75 per cent return in 2020.  

Jathin Kaithavalappil, Assistant Vice President at Choice Broking expects Sensex to touch 90,000-mark, while he sees Nifty to hit 28,000 by 2025 end. 

"India is mostly driven by an ongoing domestic consumption and investment cycle, which would intensify the economic growth process, even as global liquidity conditions could turn supportive with interest rate cuts, Kaithavalappil insisted.

2025 could be a year of modest returns and geo-political issues, along with the US Fed moves, would be critical in determining the direction of the market, said Surjitt Singh Arora, Portfolio Manager - PMS at PGIM India AMC.  Arora believes investor expectations need to be toned down, as earnings in the first six months of 2025 could be muted, given the tepid demand environment.  

Shruti Jain, Chief Strategy Officer at Arihant Capital Markets said higher valuations and slowing earnings, could lead to a range-bound market for the first three months of 2025, with a recovery driven by underlying earnings growth expected later.

"Given India’s strong structural growth, we believe the Indian economy and markets will continue to perform well, despite some headwinds," she said.