Stock market today: Gift Nifty down 70 pts; key levels to watch for Nifty, Sensex & Nifty Bank

Indian stock markets are staring at a muted start on Wednesday, ahead of market holiday at Dalal Street on Thursday on the account Maharashtra Day on May 1. Asian peers were mixed, with mostly trading red ahead of key economic data, megacap earnings, clarity between US-China tariff tussle and border tensions with Pakistan.

Nifty futures on the NSE International Exchange traded 68.80 points, or 0.28 per cent, higher at 24,356.50, hinting at a negative start for the domestic market on Wednesday. Asian stocks traded mixed on Wednesday as Nikkei and ASX 200 eked mild gains, while Hang Seng, KOSPI, Shanghai and DJ traded down, falling up to half-a-per cent in the early trade.

Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services said that the progress on the US trade deal is expected to provide near-term support amid strong institutional buying, while the ongoing earnings season may lead to stock specific movements.

US stocks closed solidly in positive territory on Tuesday as investors assessed the latest round of corporate earnings, economic data and changes on the trade policy front. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.75 per cent to 40,527.62, the S&P 500 gained 0.58 per cent to 5,560.83 and the Nasdaq Composite jumped 0.55 per cent to 17,461.32.

Oil prices edged lower in early Asian trading on Wednesday as President Donald Trump's erratic tariff policies raised concerns about weakening global economic growth and fuel demand. Brent crude futures fell 0.26 per cent to $64.08 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures dropped 0.2 per cent to $60.3 a barrel.

The US dollar was steady on Wednesday but poised for its weakest monthly performance since November 2022 as erratic US trade policies under President Donald Trump left the greenback vulnerable while boosting the euro, yen and Swiss franc. The dollar index, which measures the U.S. currency against six other units, was last at 99.219.

Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Investments said that mixed Q4 results have raised the risk of downward revisions to FY26 projections. In combination with apprehensions surrounding potential retaliatory actions, these developments may lead to some consolidation in the near term."

Provisional data available with NSE suggest that FPIs turned net buyers of domestic stocks to the tune of Rs 2,385.61 crore on Tuesday. On the other hand, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) turned net buyers of Indian equities to the tune of Rs 1,369.19 crore.

Beyond the strong performance from banking and financials, we are now witnessing rotational buying in heavyweight stocks from other sectors such as IT, energy, and auto, This trend could support the index in maintaining its positive bias, said Ajit Mishra, SVP of Research at Religare Broking, suggesting investors to continue with a 'buy on dips' strategy.

Nifty outlook
Nifty is in continuation of an uptrend, as it is placed above all key moving averages, said Nandish Shah - Deputy Vice President at HDFC Securities. "Next resistance for index is seen at 24,545, which happens to be 61.8 per cent retracement of the entire fall seen from 26,277 to 21,743. On the downside, the 24,150 level is likely to act as immediate support for the Nifty," it said.

"The index remained choppy, closing with a spinning top-like formation. Consolidation may continue in the short term, especially as the index has yet to give a decisive breakout above 24,550, said Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities. "On the lower end, support is placed at 24,250; a breach below this level could trigger increased selling pressure in the market."

Shrikant Chouhan, Head Equity Research, Kotak Securities said that 24,450/80,500 would be the immediate breakout level for the bulls on the upside in Nifty50. Above this level, the market could rally towards 24,550-24,600/80,800-81,000. "On the other hand, if the market falls below 24,250/80,000, selling pressure is likely to accelerate. Below this level, we could see a quick correction down to 24,150-24,100/79,700-79,500," he said.

Nifty Bank outlook
Nifty Bank has formed a small bear candle signaling consolidation after recent strong up move, said Bajaj Borking. "On the downside, key support is seen between 54,000-53,500. Volatility is expected to stay elevated due to ongoing geopolitical tensions, developments related to tariffs, and the unfolding Q4 earnings season," it said.

The Bank Nifty index formed a shooting star candle on the daily chart, suggesting strong supply near the 56,000 mark, while support is seen at 54,450, said Hrishikesh Yedve, AVP Technical and Derivatives Research at Asit C. Mehta Investment Interrmediates. "The index is expected to consolidate between 54,450 and 56,000 in the near term," he said.