Stock market today: Gift Nifty down 885 points; bloodbath on D-St likely today?

Indian benchmark indices are likely to open sharply lower on Monday, bracing for a tariff wrath. The fallout from US President Donald Trump's declaration of in effect a trade war via reciprocal tariffs against the world continued over the weekend, triggering a sharp sell-off in the global markets across the asset classes.

Nifty futures on the NSE International Exchange traded 885.65 points or 3.85 per cent down, at 22,072.65, hinting at a negative start for the domestic market on Monday. Asian stock markets plunged on Monday as fears of a global trade war saw Wall Street futures dive, and investors wagered the mounting risk of recession could see US interest rates cut as early as May.

Investors are expected to closely monitor any counter measures implemented by global trade partners, which could further exacerbate geopolitical and economic uncertainty. This cautious sentiment is reflected in the sustained rally in gold and bond prices, underscoring a pronounced shift toward safe-haven assets, said Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Investments.

"The tariffs imposed on India are relatively lower compared to those on other Asian economies, offering a degree of relief. Any constructive developments arising from the ongoing India–US bilateral trade negotiations could serve as a supportive catalyst. Investor attention is firmly fixed on the upcoming MPC meeting, with the benchmark interest rate decision next week," he said.

Japan's Nikkei crashed over 8 per cent, while Australia's ASX 200 and South Korea's Kospi were down 5 per cent each. Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite fell 1.5 per cent each. In the currency markets, investors sold the dollar and poured into safe havens like the yen and Swiss franc. The US dollar fell more than 0.4 per cent to 102.48, having tumbled 1 per cent last week.

Wall Street nosedived for a second straight day on Friday, confirming the Nasdaq Composite was in a bear market and the Dow Jones Industrial Average was in a correction. The Nasdaq slid 5.82 per cent and Dow Jones fell 5.50 per cent on Friday. Meanwhile, The S&P 500 lost 5.97 per cent to close at 5,074.08 points, its lowest finish in 11 months.

Investor sentiment was rattled by developments around the US imposition of reciprocal tariffs and retaliatory measures by other nations, raising fears of a global trade war. A steep decline in US markets further dampened hopes of a recovery, said Ajit Mishra, SVP, Research at Religare Broking, adding that resumption of FIIs selling is deepening the bearish mood

With tariff-related tensions escalating, global investors will closely track any further developments on that front. Back home, the RBI policy outcome on April 9, TCS' Q4 earnings on April 10, kicking-off the results season; and key macroeconomic indicators—IIP and CPI data due on April 11—will be focus, he said.

Foreign investors withdrew Rs 10,355 crore from India's equity markets in the last four trading sessions this month due to sweeping tariffs imposed by the US on most nations. FPIs sold shares worth Rs 3,973 crore in March, Rs 34,574 crore in February, Rs 78,027 crore in January 2025 so far.

Oil prices fell more than 3 per cent on Monday, extending losses from the previous week, on growing concerns that a global trade war could slow the global economy and weaken oil demand. The gloomier outlook for global growth kept oil prices under heavy pressure. Brent fell $2.12 to $63.46 a barrel, while US crude dived $2.05 to $59.94 per barrel.

Market participants shall closely track the long-term impact of the proposed tariffs, along with upcoming announcements from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) regarding its monetary policy stance amid expectations of a potential rate cut, said Manoj Purohit, Partner & Leader, FS Tax, Tax & Regulatory Services, BDO India.

Nifty outlook

Nifty has formed a bearish candle on the weekly chart and is trading near the 22,900 level. A breakdown below 22,800 may intensify the selling and open the gates for downside towards 22,500 and 22,000, said Choice Broking. "On the other hand, if it manages to reclaim and close above 23,350, it may indicate a bullish reversal, with potential upside targets of 24,000-24,500."

The Nifty has given a consolidation breakdown on the daily chart, indicating bearishness. Initially, the index found support at the crucial 22,900 level. However, sentiment remains weak, and a further decline from the current level could trigger additional market correction, said Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities. "On the higher end, resistance is seen at 23,100. A move above 23,100 would provide a clear signal for a strong uptrend," he said.

Nifty Bank outlook

For Nifty Bank, the 200-day SMA, or 51,000, is a critical support zone. As long as it is trading above this level, the bullish setup is likely to continue, said  Amol Athawale, VP-Technical Research at Kotak Securities. It could move to 52,200-52,500 on the upside. "If it falls below 51,000, the uptrend would become vulnerable. In that case, traders may prefer to exit their long positions," he said.

Nifty Bank on the weekly chart formed a small bull candle which remained enclosed inside previous week range signaling consolidation after recent strong up move, said Bajaj Broking Research. "We believe the current breather should be used as a buying opportunity in quality stocks in a staggered manner," it said.