Stock market today: Sensex, Nifty eye weak start as US strikes on Iran send oil soaring

Stock market today: Sensex, Nifty eye weak start as US strikes on Iran send oil soaring

Stock indices across Australia, Japan, Korea, mainland China, Hong Kong and Korea fell up to 0.90 per cent. Gift Nifty was down 21 points or 0.08 per cent at 25,001.50, hinting at a muted start for the market. 

Amit Mudgill
Amit Mudgill
  • Updated Jun 23, 2025 8:29 AM IST
Stock market today: Sensex, Nifty eye weak start as US strikes on Iran send oil soaringStock investors may closely monitor oil prices, as Brent futures for September delivery climbed 1.97 per cent to $76.97 a barrel level today.

Stock market today: Benchmark stock indices Sensex and Nifty could see a weak opening, as Asian markets fell up to 1 per cent lower in Monday's trade amid fears that Iran could retaliate against the recent US strikes by closing the Strait of Hormuz and attack US military facilities in the Gulf. This is after the US attacked three of its nuclear facilities, thus broadening the Iran-Israel conflict. 

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The US President Donald Trump suggested the US attacked Iranian nuclear sites at Fordow, Natanz and Esfahan, entering into the Israel-Iran conflict. Iranian nuclear sites were "totally obliterated", he claimed.

Crude oil imports from Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the UAE that pass-through the Strait of Hormuz account for 45 50 per cent of total crude imports by India. About 60 per cent of the natural gas imports by India pass through the Strait of Hormuz, analysts noted.
 

"Global cues will remain the dominant force, with a focus on geopolitical tensions between Iran and Israel, US economic data, and commentary from Federal Reserve officials. Any signs of easing US inflation or a dovish tone from the Fed may further fuel the rally," said Ajit Mishra – SVP, Research at Religare Broking.

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Mishra said domestically, investors will closely monitor monsoon progress, volatility related to futures & options (F&O) monthly expiry, crude oil price movements, and FII activity for further cues. 

Indices across Australia, Japan, Korea, mainland China, Hong Kong and Korea fell up to 0.90 per cent. Gift Nifty was down 21 points or 0.08 per cent at 25,001.50, hinting at a muted start for the market. 

The White House had earlier suggested US President Donald Trump would decide on Iran attacks in the next two weeks, given there’s a substantial chance of negotiations. The flare up in Middle East tensions raised questions over whether chances of further negotiations wit Iran were low. 

Emkay Global on Saturday said it remains constructive on India on the back of RBI’s monetary easing and earnings recovery in 2HFY25. 

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"Valuation comfort has eroded, although prospects of an earnings recovery keep us positive on overall markets. We trim our tech exposure to ‘Neutral’ after the smart recovery, and add Dixon and IndiGo in our model portfolio revamp," Emkay Global said.

Stock investors may closely monitor oil prices, as Brent futures for September delivery climbed 1.97 per cent to $76.97 a barrel level today, while August futures rose 1.74 per cent to $78.35. Attention is also focused on the possibility of Iran attempting to close the Strait of Hormuz or targeting U.S. military installations in the Gulf.

"A direct U.S. intervention would have unpredictable consequences. Historically, America's involvement in regime changes across the Middle East has yielded poor results. Such actions also run counter to the non-interventionist stance central to the MAGA agenda on which Trump campaigned. In the view of GREED & fear, direct intervention by the U.S. would likely heighten the risk of more extreme market reactions, including sharp spikes in oil prices," Jefferies noted on June 19.

In its latest GREED & fear note, Jefferies observed that oil prices have slightly retreated from recent highs. According to the firm, Iran’s past rhetoric suggested that the combined effect of Israeli military actions and U.S. defensive support—such as helping intercept Iranian missile attacks—would typically have prompted Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz and target American military assets in the Gulf.

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“That this has not happened so far is leading markets to believe Iran may no longer have the capability to do so,” Jefferies stated.

Still, markets remain on edge, with close attention on Iran’s next move.

“The risk premium on oil is back with a vengeance,” said an energy strategist at Saxo Markets. “If the Strait is compromised, $120 oil isn’t out of the question.”

Disclaimer: Business Today provides stock market news for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Readers are encouraged to consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Published on: Jun 23, 2025 7:48 AM IST
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