Tata Motors Q4 result preview: JLR numbers, margins & dividend among key factors to watch

Tata Motors Q4 result preview: Tata Group's auto major, Tata Motors, is set to announce its results for the quarter and financial year ended on March 31, 2024 on Tuesday, May 13, 2025. The company board is also likely to consider the final dividend for the financial year 2024-25.

Analysts tracking the stock are expecting it to report a muted set of performance in the March 2025 quarter. The company may report a flattish growth in revenue on a year-on-year (YoY) basis, while the bottomline may tank up to 55 per cent on a yearl basis. However, a modest sequential growth (QoQ) is seen in revenue and Ebitda, while JLR business are likely to remain under pressure.

Nuvama Institutional Equities is penciling in consolidated revenue of Tata Motors at R 1,20,454.4 crore, flat YoY and up 6 per cent OQ. Ebitda may come in at Rs 16,001.9 crore, down 6 per cent YoY but up 23 per cent QoQ. Adjust net profit may come in at Rs 7,681.3 crore, down 56 per cent YoY.

"Revenue is expected to be flat YoY. EBITDA margin shall contract, despite improvement in India CV/PV margin, owing to lower JLR margin. Key thing to watch out for is JLR demand and margin outlook," said Nuvama. Nuvama has a 'reduce' rating on Tata Motors with a target price of Rs 720.

Elara Capital is expecting Tata Motors to report a revenue of Rs 1,21,428.3 crore, up 6.9 per cent QoQ and 1.2 per cent YoY. Ebitda is seen at Rs 15,846.4 crore, up 21.1 per cent QoQ but down 7.5 per cent QoQ. Net profit may come in at Rs 7,848.7 crore, down 55 per cent YoY but up 43.3 per cent QoQ.

"Domestic cyclicals are likely to post an earnings decline, dragged by Tata Motors. In contrast, we expect Tata Motors to report a margin drop of 120bp YoY, attributed to muted demand globally for JLR and weaker growth outlook for its PV & CV segments," said Elara.

Ahead of its earnings, shares of Tata Motors dropped nearly one per cent to Rs 714.35 on Tuesday, with a market capitalization of Rs 2.6 lakh crore. The stock had settled at Rs 720.55 on Monday. Despite a 33 per cent recovery from its 52-week low at Rs 542.55, hit a month ago, Tata Motors' stock is still 40 per cent below its 52-week high of Rs 1,179.05, scaled in July 2024.

JM Financial is expecting Tata Motors to clock a revenue of Rs 1,19,792.9 crore, up 6.2 per cent QoQ but flat on a yearly basis. Ebitda is seen at Rs 16,629.6 crore, up 4.9 per cent QoQ but down 18.4 per cent YoY. Net profit is seen at Rs 5,482.6 crore, flat QoQ but down 68.7 per cent YoY.

Kotak Institutional Equities is expecting Tata Motors to report a revenue of Rs 1,20,932.9 crore, up 6.5 per cent QoQ but flat on a YoY basis. Ebitda may come in at Rs 16,110.2 crore, up 23.6 per cent QoQ but down 5.2 per cent YoY, while Ebitda margins may rise 184 bps to 13.3 per cent. Net profit may come in at Rs 141.1 core, up 89.9 per cent QoQ but flat on YoY. Kotak has a 'reduce' rating on Tata Motors with a target price of Rs 600.

"We estimate the standalone business's revenues to decline led by a 4 per cent YoY decline in volumes and a 1 per cent YoY decline in ASPs. Overall, we expect the EBITDA margin to increase by 90 bps yoy, driven by commodity tailwinds and a richer product mix. We also expect the domestic PV business's Ebitda to improve to 7.7 per cent driven by a richer product mix, commodity tailwinds in the EV segment due to a decline in battery prices and PLI accrual, partly offset by higher discounts," said Kotak.