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Tata Power, NTPC Green, Acme Solar, PowerGrid: Q1 results preview, target prices

Tata Power, NTPC Green, Acme Solar, PowerGrid: Q1 results preview, target prices

Tata Power is seen reporting a 17 per cent rise in adjusted Q1 profit. Key growth drivers included the ramp-up in solar cell-module manufacturing, rooftop solar deployment, and renewable energy capacity additions.

Amit Mudgill
Amit Mudgill
  • Updated Jul 14, 2025 10:19 AM IST
Tata Power, NTPC Green, Acme Solar, PowerGrid: Q1 results preview, target prices NTPC Green Energy added 750 MW of organic capacity and completed its first full quarter of Ayana acquisition consolidation.

IIFL Securities in its June quarter preview note expected a healthy 17 per cent year-on-year earnings growth across its energy sector coverage, driven by a mix of capacity additions, refinancing benefits, and renewables-led momentum. The brokerage has updated its estimates to reflect developments like weaker power demand, lower coal plant utilisation, and timing mismatches in M&A consolidations. Here's a deep dive into the performance expectations and updated target prices across key players.

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NTPC: Capacity-driven momentum| Buy | Target Maintained at Rs 405
India’s largest thermal power generator, NTPC, is projected to report a 12 per cent YoY rise in profit after tax (PAT) for Q1FY26, supported by a Rs 6,900 crore increase in standalone regulated equity over past 12 months and favorable movement in fixed cost recovery. Although some minor adjustments have been made to FY25–28 estimates, IIFL maintained its SoTP-based target price at Rs 405 and reiterated its ‘Buy’ rating.

Tata Power: Solar & distribution lead growth| Buy | TP raised to Rs 440
Tata Power is anticipated to report a strong quarter, with a 17 per cent rise in adjusted profit. Key growth drivers included the ramp-up in solar cell-module manufacturing, rooftop solar deployment, and renewable energy capacity additions. Odisha distribution performance is also expected to improve on a low base. IIFL Securities has slightly revised earnings estimates and upgraded the target price to for the stock to Rs 440 from Rs 435), maintaining its ‘Buy’ rating.

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Power Grid: Stable play | Buy| Target retained at Rs 365
IIFL Securities said Power Grid Corporation could post a 6.5 per cent YoY earnings growth, riding on a favorable base and stabilised tariff regime post the 2025–29 reset. It estimated Power Grid's capital expenditure at Rs 5600 crore and capitalisation at Rs 2700 crore for the quarter. Estimates have been marginally adjusted, but the target price was kept unchanged at Rs 365, with a continued ‘Buy’ recommendation.

JSW Energy: High earnings growth, valuation a concern
Despite an estimated 98 per cent YoY surge in PAT, JSW Energy is the least preferred stock in IIFL’s power coverage. The likely jump is attributed to the consolidation of O2 Power, full-quarter contribution from Mahanadi, and potential commissioning of over 500 MW renewable projects. However, softer merchant power prices and low thermal PLFs may continue to weigh. IIFL has left the target price for JSW Energy unchanged at Rs 480, but downgraded the stock to ‘Reduce’, citing an unfavorable risk-reward profile.

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NTPC Green Energy: Organic capacity | ‘ADD’| Target price at Rs 105
NTPC Green Energy added 750 MW of organic capacity and completed its first full quarter of Ayana acquisition consolidation. PAT is expected to rise sharply to Rs 230 crore from Rs 140 crore YoY, aided by a 300 per cent jump in other income due to increased cash from its IPO. While estimates have been revised upward, the IIFL's target price remains at Rs 105, with a ‘Add’ rating.

Acme Solar: Turning Profitable | Buy | Target price upped to Rsa 325
Acme Solar is forecast to report a stellar turnaround, with PAT likely at Rs 140 crore in Q1FY26, up from just Rs 1.4 crore YoY. The improvement is driven by 1.55 GW in capacity additions over the past 12 months, along with refinancing-led savings. IIFL has revised its target price upward to Rs 325 from Rs 295 and reaffirmed its ‘Buy’ call.

IIFL’s top picks: NTPC, Tata Power, and Acme Solar
Among the stocks under coverage, Tata Power, NTPC, and Acme Solar stand out as IIFL’s top picks based on execution strength, visibility in renewables, and improving return metrics. PowerGrid is also attractive on risk-reward, though execution challenges persist. JSW Energy, despite high headline growth, is less favored due to valuation headwinds and merchant exposure.

Disclaimer: Business Today provides stock market news for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Readers are encouraged to consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Published on: Jul 14, 2025 10:17 AM IST
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