Tata Power Q4 results preview: Soft quarter likely; solar portfolio, dividend to be watched

Tata Power Q4 results preview: Tata Group's utility arm Tata Power Company is scheduled to announce its results for the quarter and year ended on March 31, 2025 on Wednesday, May 14. Along with the financial results, the company board may also consider and announce a dividend for its shareholders.

According to the analysts tracking the stock, Tata Power may report a decent rise in revenue on a year-on-year (YoY) and quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) basis. However, Ebitda growth may remain subdued on the back of contracting margins. Net profit for the quarter may fall on a sequential basis according to the brokerage estimates.

Nuvama Institutional Equities pencils Tata Power to clock a revenue of Rs 19,213 crore in March 2025 quarter, up 21 per cent YoY and 25 per cent QoQ. Ebitda is seen at Rs 3,131.7 crore, up 14 per cent YoY and 2 per cent QoQ. Core profit may come in at Rs 1,012.1 crore, up 13 per cent YoY but down 2 per cent QoQ.

"We are expecting a flattish quarter QoQ driven by higher Mundra UMPP generation (and hence, losses) balanced out by increased output from solar manufacturing; Tata projects performance/consolidation of EPC/module sales is a key monitorable going ahead," said Nuvama, which has a 'reduce' rating with a target price of Rs 343.

Kotak Institutional Equities expects Tata Power to report a revenue of Rs 17,107.8 crore, up 13.2 per cent QoQ and 5.2 per cent YoY. It pencils Ebitda to come in at Rs 3,084 crore, flat sequentially and up 12.5 per cent YoY, while Ebitda margin may come in at 18 per cent, falling 235 bps. Net profit may come in at Rs 903.5 crore, flat YoY but down 12.3 per cent QoQ.

"Earnings from the renewable portfolio will benefit from a higher capacity base and strong execution at Tata Power Solar. Contained losses at Mundra, as the plant was operating under the cost-plus tariff model during the quarter," said Kotak. It has a 'sell' rating on Tata Power with a target price of Rs 330.

Shares of Tata Power Company jumped nearly 2 per cent to Rs 395.80 on Wednesday, against its previous close at Rs 389.15 on Tuesday. The company commanded a total market capitalization of more than Rs 1.25 lakh crore. The stock has dropped around 20 per cent from its 52-week high at Rs 494.85, hit in September 2024.

JM Financial is modeling Tata Power's revenue at Rs 16,044.9 crore, up 1.3 per cent YoY and 4.2 per cent QoQ. Ebitda is seen at Rs 3,561.7 crore, up 52.7 per cent YoY and 6.2 per cent QoQ. Net profit may come in at Rs 987.9 crore, up 15.3 per cent YoY and 4.2 per cent QoQ. JM Financial has a 'buy' rating on the stock with a target price of Rs 456.

Elara Capital is expecting Tata Power to clock a revenue of Rs 16,573.5 crore, up 4.6 per cent YoY and 7.7 per cent QoQ. Ebitda is seen at Rs 3,016.4 crore, up 29.4 per cent YoY but down 10 per cent QoQ. Net profit is seen at Rs 1,193.5 crore, up 9 per cent YoY but down 4 per cent QoQ.