Tata Power shares inline Q4 results; what stock price targets hint at

Tata Power Company Ltd, India's largest private integrated utility, reported in-line Q4 results, as revenue grew 7 per cent YoY and consolidated PAT rose 25 per cent YoY, led by better margin in the solar EPC segment and improved profitability in Orissa and Mundra UMPP. Stock analysts are neutral-to-positive on the stock, with their share price targets suggesting up to 20 per cent potential upside for the Tata group stock.

The timely commissioning of renewable capacity (Tata Power plans to add 2-2.5 GW per annum), solar EPC order inflow, further opportunities under pumped hydro and nuclear power plants would be key catalysts for the stock going ahead, Antique Stock Broking said. 

It suggested a 'Buy' rating and a target price of Rs 477 on the stock.

Tata Power reported a consolidated profit after tax (PAT) of Rs 1,306 crore, up 25 per cent YoY. Revenue for the quarter was up 7 per cent at Rs 17,328 crore while Ebitda jumped 14 per cent to Rs 3,829 crore on strong performance across generation, T&D, and renewables segments. 

Nuvama said Tata Power's profit was 9 per cent below the Street estimate. Odisha Discoms’ Q4 PAT jumped 3 times YoY while module manufacturing operating profit margin was a strong 27 per cent, aided by third-party sales—likely to normalise from H2FY26 as sales shift to in-house utility supply. The Tata group firm missed FY25 RE addition or capex target by 500MW, it noted.

"We stay optimistic on Tata Power's long-term RE transition (70 per cent mix by FY30), solar manufacturing (50 per cent external sales by FY27) and optionality of solar rooftops, nuclear and potential UP Discom acquisition. However, growth is back-ended and priced in," Nuvama said. 

It  maintained ‘Reduce’ and suggested a target of Rs 374 on the stock. 

MOFSL suggested a 'Buy' and a target price of Rs 476. It valued Tata Power's regulated business using a 2.5 times multiple on regulated equity.

"Coal segment is valued based on equity with a 1.5x multiple of FY24 book value. Renewables segment is valued at a 14x multiple of the projected FY27 Ebitda. Pumped storage segment is valued at 1x PB, while other segments are valued at 1.5x PB. Cash and investments add Rs 49 per share," MOFSL said.