UPL shares slip 5% even as Q4 profit soars 2,140% YoY; here's what Nuvama says

Shares of UPL Ltd fell sharply in Tuesday's trade despite recording a 2,140 per cent year-on-year (YoY) surge in its consolidated net profit for the fourth quarter of the financial year 2024-25. In Q4 FY25, profit came at Rs 896 crore as against Rs 40 crore profit posted in the corresponding period last year.

The agrochemical firm's revenue from operations for the March 2025 quarter stood at Rs 15,573 crore, rising 10.61 per cent YoY compared to Rs 14,078 crore in the year-ago period.

On the stock-specific front, UPL tanked 5.08 per cent to hit a low of Rs 641.55. The counter was last seen trading 5.02 per cent down at Rs 642.85. At this price, it has gained 28.44 per cent on a year-to-date (YTD) basis.

Brokerage view

Nuvama Institutional Equities said UPL reported an industry-leading performance with a strong volume recovery in Q4FY25 and FY25. "Improvement in working capital (by 33 days), astute debt reduction (~$1 billion) and EBITDA growth guidance of 10–14 per cent, going into FY26, mark strong scalars and vectors for UPL," the domestic brokerage stated.

It maintained a 'Buy' call on UPL shares, suggesting a revised target price of Rs 781. "We are moderating FY26 estimates marginally to factor in a gradual pickup in volumes and reckon FY27 shall log accelerated growth led by the NPP portfolio ($1.5bn target by FY30), speciality chemicals business and global crop protection business. Maintain 'BUY'. We are reducing FY26E EPS by 14.0 per cent and raising FY27E EPS by 5 per cent, yielding a revised TP of Rs 781, valuing UPL at 13x Q4FY27E EPS," Nuvama stated.

The broking firm noted that UPL's innovation strategy is driving its robust performance, with $100 million revenue from new crop protection products and a 14 per cent innovation rate. Nuvama further stated the company expects to launch 20 more products in FY26 and is aiming for $1.5 billion in risk-adjusted annual sales by FY30.