Vedanta Q4 results: Stock price target, dividend per share projection for FY26 & more

Vedanta has reported a 118 per cent year-on-year (YoY) rise in net profit to Rs 4,961 crore for the March quarter, driven by a 13.9 per cent YoY increase in sales to Rs 40,455 crore. The Anil Agarwal-led company said its Ebitda climbed 30.8 per cent to Rs 11,466 crore, with the Ebitda margin expanding 365 basis points to 28.34 per cent, beating analyst estimates.

Following its Q4 results, Nuvama has retained its 'Buy' call on Vedanta, as the domestic brokerage expects aluminium profitability to remain firm, with lower aluminium prices likely to be offset by lower alumina prices. The brokerage expects Vedanta to pay a dividend per share of Rs 30 in FY26 and FY27.

FY26 could mark the commissioning of all scheduled expansions — except coal mines, it noted. Factoring this in, Nuvama projects an Ebitda CAGR of 20 per cent for Vedanta over FY25–27, reaching Rs 60,500 crore, driven by higher volumes and lower production costs. The aluminium segment is expected to be the biggest growth driver, with a projected 25 per cent CAGR over FY25–27.

Vedanta is expected to position itself in the first decile of the global cost curve by FY28E, Nuvama said, while maintaining its positive outlook on the company amid key catalysts such as deleveraging, high dividends, and EBITDA growth from cost reductions and volume increases in aluminium and zinc starting FY26.

"We are reducing FY26E/27E Ebitda by 5 per cent to factor in lower zinc and alumina volumes, as well as lower profits in oil & gas. The demerger of the business may be delayed beyond Q2FY26 as it is still seeking regulatory approvals. We retain our ‘BUY’ rating with a target price of Rs 607, based on FY27E SOTP valuation (excluding dividend per share of Rs 30)," Nuvama said.

The brokerage noted that the quarter’s Ebitda beat its estimate of Rs 10,830 crore. The 3 per cent sequential rise in consolidated Ebitda was attributed to higher zinc and aluminium profits. Despite higher alumina prices, aluminium Ebitda per tonne stood firm at $879, the brokerage added. Net debt (excluding Hindustan Zinc and including buyers’ credit) peaked in Q3FY25 and declined by Rs 1,130 crore QoQ to Rs 68,400 crore.