Vedanta: Should you buy, hold or sell this stock post Q4 results

Better profitability at its Aluminium and Zinc India businesses helped Vedanta meet Street estimates on Q4 earnings growth, sequentially. Its management's focus during the earnings call was on projects, mine developments, and power segment expansion timelines, with most projects coming online by the first half of FY26, with the demerger targeted for completion by September 2025. Post its Q4 results, analysts have tweaked their earnings estimates a bit and suggested a neutral-to-positive view on the stock.  

MOFSL said Vedanta's March quarter performance came largely in line across segments, adding that capex plans are progressing well and will likely lead to further cost savings.

"The management targets to maintain strong growth in earnings, led by the upcoming capacity, which will produce higher VAP products. Vedanta remains firm on its deleveraging plans, and going forward, higher cash flows will support both its expansion plans and deleveraging efforts. The stock currently trades at 4.9 times FY27 EV/Ebitda," MOFSL said.

The brokerage has marginally cut its estimates for FY27 and suggested 'Neutral 'rating on the stock with a target of Rs 470.

Vedanta has reported a 118 per cent year-on-year (YoY) increase in net profit to Rs 4,961 crore for the March quarter, driven by a 13.9 per cent YoY rise in sales to Rs 40,455 crore. The Anil Agarwal-led company stated that its Ebitda rose 30.8 per cent to Rs 11,466 crore, with the Ebitda margin expanding by 365 basis points to 28.34 per cent, surpassing analyst estimates.

Emkay Global cut its earnings estimates by 5 per cent for FY26–27 and reiterated 'Buy' while pruning its target price by 4.5 per cent to Rs 525, down from Rs 550 earlier.  

Nuvama has maintained its 'Buy' recommendation on Vedanta, anticipating sustained profitability in the aluminium segment. The domestic brokerage expects lower aluminium prices to be offset by a decline in alumina costs. It also projects Vedanta to pay a dividend of Rs 30 per share in both FY26 and FY27. This brokerage suggested a target price of Rs 607 apiece on the stock. 

According to Nuvama, FY26 could see the completion of all planned expansions, excluding coal mines. Taking this into account, the brokerage forecasts an Ebitda compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 20 per cent for Vedanta over FY25–27, reaching Rs 60,500 crore, driven by increased volumes and reduced production costs. The aluminium segment is expected to be the primary growth engine, with a projected CAGR of 25 per cent over the same period.

Among global brokerages, CLSA maintained 'Buy' while raising its target price to Rs 535 on Vedanta. Citi also retained its 'Buy' call on Vedanta and suggested a target price of Rs 500.