Lodha, Oberoi Realty, Godrej Properties shares: Mumbai registrations up, what's ahead?

The number of housing units registered in Mumbai jumped 24 per cent YoY to 12,056 units. Registrations were up 10 per cent month-on-month even as there were fewer days in the month. That said the overall value of units registered fell 20 per cent YoY (up 16 per cent MoM) to Rs 14,800 crore due to which the average ticket size was also down 36 per cent YoY (up 6 per cent MoM) to Rs 1.22 crore.

The high base of February 2023 was due to homebuyers’ rush to buy luxury properties last year following the government's decision to limit tax deductions on capital gains earned from the sale of residential property after March 31, 2023.

"The share of homes with area of over 500sft increased to 45 per cent in Feb-24 (34 per cent in Feb-23, 48 per cent in Jan-24). The share of homes with 500–1,000sft area declined to 42 per cent in Feb-24 (45 per cent in Feb-23, 43 per cent in Jan-24). Western and central suburbs continue to lead the demand," Nuvama said in a note,

The domestic brokerage said with the RBI hitting the pause button on rate hikes Mumbai’s real estate sales would improve going ahead. This, it said, would benefit Mumbai-based players such as Macrotech Developers Ltd (Lodha), Oberoi Realty Ltd, Keystone Realtors Ltd (Rustomjee), Godrej Properties Ltd and Sunteck Realty.

"Consolidation is the driving feature of India’s property market. We believe the buoyancy in sales would sustain driven by: i) robust business development targets (refer to Business development building up); ii) pickup in launches, aided by cash flow improvement (refer to Cash flow generation surges); iii) interest rate stabilisation (refer to Housing stocks: Back in favour); iv) diversification; and v) market share gains (refer Real estate - Burning bright; hope for more)," Nuvama said.

An increase in wages, employment opportunities and return-to-office are expected to keep home buying activity healthy, it said.