MSCI rejig today: IDFC First Bank, REC, PFC, Ashok Leyland, HDFC AMC shares to see $152-$214 million inflows

Index aggregator MSCI's changes to MSCI Global Standard Index will take place today. The rejig was announced on August 23. As per some estimates, eight Indian stocks including IDFC First Bank, REC, Power Finance Corporation (PFC), Ashok Leyland and HDFC AMC are likely to see $152-214 million inflows. IDFC First Bank could see $214 million inflows, said Abhilash Pagaria of Nuvama Institutional Equities. The brokerage sees REC to see $207 million inflows, followed by PFC ($206 million), Supreme Industries ($200 million), Ashok Leyland ($197 million) and Cummins India ($171 million).

Astral ($170 million) and HDFC AMC ($152 million) ae also expected to see inflows while ACC, the only MSCI exclusion could see $96 million in outflows, Nuvama estimated.

"A total of eight inclusions have been announced, aligning with our projections for six of them. However, two unexpected entries (REC & Supreme Industries) emerged as surprises. In our assessment, these were strong contenders for the November 23 review. It's worth noting that the aforementioned stocks were selected via the NOC route as this time India got six NOC slots which is one of the highest seen in my experience," Nuvama said.

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A host of stocks would see up to $128 million outflows due to reduced weightages. They included Reliance Industries, TCS, Axis Bank, Hindustan Unilever, Bharti Airtel, Bajaj Finance and Kotak Mahindra Bank. Meanwhile, PI Industries could see $15 million inflows on increased weightage, Nuvama noted.

Meanwhile, MSCI has explicitly stated their intention to retain the current float and continue monitoring the situation without making any alterations. This is in-line to what we expected. MSCI has opted to maintain the existing methodology, and consequently, HDFC Bank's FIF factor remains unchanged. India's weight, meanwhile, is anticipated to shift from around 14.5 per cent to 14.7 per cent