US visa crackdown to cut foreign student enrolments by 1.1 lakh; Indian students to be impacted the most

American universities are bracing for a significant drop in foreign student numbers this autumn. Stricter visa rules and shifting immigration policy are expected to result in up to 1.1 lakh fewer international student registrations in Fall 2026, according to a new report by NAFSA: Association of International Educators.

The financial consequences are substantial. The report, produced jointly by NAFSA and research firm JB International, projects that the enrolment decline could reduce local spending by $3.4 billion and put approximately 39,000 jobs at risk.

The trend is already visible in the numbers. International student registrations stood at an estimated 11.69 lakh in Fall 2025-26. This year, that figure has dropped to 10.57 lakh, and is expected to fall further.

India, the largest source of international students in the US with over 3.63 lakh enrolled in 2024-25, is among the countries most directly affected by the shifting landscape.

The economic toll

International students contributed $41.77 billion to the US local economy in Fall 2025-26. That figure is projected to shrink to $38.37 billion in 2026-27, a decline directly tied to falling enrolment numbers, particularly at the graduate level, where the drops are most pronounced among institutions with the largest international student populations.

Fanta Aw, Executive Director and CEO of NAFSA, framed the stakes plainly: "The projections underscore what we've long warned: US policy and regulations affect where international students plan to invest their future, and their decisions carry significant short- and long-term consequences for US society and economy."

What is driving the decline

Several policy decisions have compounded the pressure on international students. The State Department's decision to prioritise visa issuance for FIFA World Cup ticket holders over students during what is historically the peak season for student and scholar visa processing was one direct factor. The report noted that prioritising student applications during this period has traditionally helped ensure timely campus arrivals, a practice that was bypassed this year.

Travel restrictions also played a role. Last year, the government restricted visitors from dozens of countries including Afghanistan and Yemen on security grounds. Last month, the Department of Homeland Security finalised a new rule that limits how long international students can stay in the US without an extension to four years, a change that creates particular difficulties for doctoral students and those hoping to pursue post-study work through OPT.

The broader warning

Aw's message to policymakers was direct: "All Americans lose when international students and scholars are driven to more welcoming countries. Forfeiting the US position as the top destination for global talent hurts students, hospitals, research laboratories, the economies, and carries the real risk that the next big invention will not happen on US soil."

(With inputs from PTI)