With both economic and geopolitical trends pointing downwards, economists fear a recession in 2020 or 2021. The deteriorating environment is also a major threat and much more likely to produce a global crisis. For these and many more such reasons, year 2020 looks worrying. Here are top 10 biggest geopolitical risks we are most likely to face in 2020, according to consultancy firm, Eurasia.
Rigged!: Who governs the US?
The Great Decoupling
US-China tensions
As this decoupling occurs, US-China tensions will lead to a more explicit clash over national security, influence, and values. The two sides will continue to use economic tools in this struggle-sanctions, export controls, and boycotts-with shorter fuses and goals that are more explicitly political. Companies and other governments will find it harder to avoid being caught into the crossfire. Divergences between the two countries' political structures are bringing irreconcilable differences to the fore. Thus, the US-China rivalry will increasingly be waged as a clash of values and animated by patriotic fervor.
MNCs not to the rescue
India gets Modi-fied
Geopolitical Europe
Politics vs. economics of climate change
Shia crescendo
US policy toward the major Shia-led nations in the Middle East is failing. That creates significant risks for regional stability, including a lethal conflict with Iran; upward pressure on oil prices; an Iraqi state that is either in Iran's orbit or failing; and a rogue Syria fused to Moscow and Tehran. In Iraq, the United States is on its way to persona non grata status, which will leave more running room for an already influential Tehran. US policy in Iran, Iraq, and Syria will drive regional risk in 2020, to the detriment of the regional political and economic order.
Discontent in Latin America
Turkey
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