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Food security threat: Bay of Bengal’s fish supply at risk as climate-driven monsoon shifts disrupt marine life

Food security threat: Bay of Bengal’s fish supply at risk as climate-driven monsoon shifts disrupt marine life

The study found that both abnormally strong and weak monsoon periods led to a 50% reduction in surface food availability for marine life. With climate change predicted to intensify monsoon variability, the Bay of Bengal's marine productivity faces a growing threat, the researchers said.

Business Today Desk
Business Today Desk
  • Updated Apr 28, 2025 10:33 PM IST
Food security threat: Bay of Bengal’s fish supply at risk as climate-driven monsoon shifts disrupt marine lifeAlthough it covers less than 1% of the global ocean, the Bay of Bengal is responsible for nearly 8% of the world's fishery production.

The lifeline of millions across the Bay of Bengal may be at risk. New research led by Rutgers University scientists warns that extreme shifts in India's summer monsoon expected to intensify with climate change could dramatically cripple marine life in the Bay, a critical source of food for the region.

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Published in Nature Geoscience, the study draws on collaborations between researchers from Rutgers, the University of Arizona, and institutions across India, China, and Europe, tracing 22,000 years of monsoon and marine productivity history.

Although it covers less than 1% of the global ocean, the Bay of Bengal is responsible for nearly 8% of the world's fishery production, sustaining densely populated coastal communities dependent on marine resources for food and income.

"Millions of people living along the Bay of Bengal rely on the sea for protein, particularly from fisheries," Yair Rosenthal, a Distinguished Professor at Rutgers University and co-author of the study, told phys.org.

Rosenthal explained that the ocean's ability to support plankton growth — the foundation of the marine food web — is crucial. Any decline in productivity can cascade through the ecosystem, depleting fish stocks and jeopardizing food security.

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The study found that both abnormally strong and weak monsoon periods led to a 50% reduction in surface food availability for marine life. The mechanism: extreme conditions disrupted ocean mixing, cutting off the nutrient flow from the deep sea to the surface where plankton flourish.

With climate change predicted to intensify monsoon variability, the Bay of Bengal's marine productivity faces a growing threat, the researchers said. To uncover these patterns, scientists analyzed fossilized foraminifera — tiny plankton that build calcium carbonate shells, capturing snapshots of past ocean and climate conditions.

"By analyzing their chemistry and tracking the abundance of certain types that thrive in productive waters, we reconstructed long-term changes in rainfall, ocean temperatures and marine life in the Bay of Bengal," Kaustubh Thirumalai, lead author and an assistant professor at the University of Arizona, told phys.org.

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The team retrieved sediment samples from the seafloor during an expedition aboard the research vessel JOIDES Resolution, part of the International Ocean Discovery Program.

Their findings revealed collapses in marine productivity during periods like Heinrich Stadial 1, a cold phase between 17,500 and 15,500 years ago marked by weak monsoons, and the early Holocene, around 10,500 to 9,500 years ago, when strong monsoons dominated amid rapid warming and sea level rise.

Monsoon rainfall governs the freshwater discharge from rivers into the Bay of Bengal. Excessive rains create a freshwater layer that caps the ocean surface, blocking nutrient circulation. Insufficient rains, conversely, weaken ocean mixing, similarly starving plankton of nutrients.

Comparing ancient patterns with modern data and projections, researchers noted alarming similarities. Future scenarios anticipate warmer surface waters, heavier freshwater runoff, and weaker winds—conditions that historically triggered steep declines in marine productivity.

Understanding these ancient patterns provides critical insight into how Earth's interconnected systems influence climate, ecosystems and societies over long timescales.

"The relationship between monsoons and ocean biology we have uncovered in the Bay of Bengal gives us real-world evidence of how marine ecosystems have reacted to warming and monsoon shifts and may do so in the future," Rosenthal said.

Published on: Apr 28, 2025 9:27 PM IST
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