Hottest year on record: Global average temperatures for 2024 on track to exceed 1.5°C threshold

It is now “virtually certain” that 2024 will be the hottest year on record, marked by severe heatwaves and devastating storms, according to projections from the European climate service. 

Global average temperatures for the year are on track to exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, making 2024 the first year to surpass this symbolic threshold.  

These elevated temperatures are primarily driven by human-caused climate change, with natural factors such as the El Niño weather pattern playing a smaller role. 

Scientists warn that this trend should serve as a wake-up call ahead of next week’s COP29 climate summit in Azerbaijan.  

“This new record sends a stark reminder to governments at COP29 about the urgent need for action to prevent further warming,” says Liz Bentley, CEO of the Royal Meteorological Society. 

With just two months left in 2024, global temperatures have been so high that only an extreme drop in the final weeks would prevent the year from setting a new record. 

Projections suggest that by the end of 2024, global temperatures will be at least 1.55°C warmer than pre-industrial levels, according to data from the European Copernicus Climate Change Service. 

“Pre-industrial” refers to the period from 1850-1900, before human activities like fossil fuel burning began significantly warming the planet. 

If confirmed, this would mean 2024 surpasses the current record of 1.48°C, set just last year. 

“This is another major milestone in the history of global temperature records,” says Samantha Burgess, deputy director of Copernicus. 

This would also mark the first time that an entire calendar year has exceeded 1.5°C of warming, according to Copernicus data. This is symbolic because nearly 200 countries committed under the 2015 Paris Agreement to limit global temperature rise to below 1.5°C to avoid the worst impacts of climate change. 

While breaching 1.5°C in a single year does not mean the Paris Agreement goal has been fully violated (since it focuses on long-term averages), each year-long breach brings the world closer to passing that threshold permanently. The UN recently warned that, based on current policies, global temperatures could rise by more than 3°C by the end of the century. 

The specifics of 2024’s warming are also concerning. Early in the year, temperatures were influenced by the natural El Niño phenomenon, where unusually warm surface waters in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean release extra heat into the atmosphere. This phase began in mid-2023 and ended in April 2024, but temperatures have remained unusually high since then. 

In the past week, global average temperatures have consistently broken records for this time of year, according to Copernicus data. 

Many scientists expect the onset of La Niña, the cooler phase of the climate cycle, in the near future, which could bring a temporary dip in global temperatures. However, the exact impacts remain uncertain. 

“We’ll be closely watching what happens as we move into 2025 and beyond,” says Ed Hawkins, professor of climate science at the University of Reading. 

But with greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere continuing to rise, scientists warn that new records are almost inevitable. 

“As temperatures rise, we’re seeing storms become more intense, heatwaves more extreme, and heavy rainfall more frequent, with severe consequences for people everywhere,” said Professor Hawkins. “Achieving net-zero emissions is the only way to stop adding to the costs of these climate disasters.”