Newly discovered city-killer asteroid could hit Earth in 2032, warn scientists. Here's what NASA has to say

A newly discovered asteroid has caught the attention of scientists, which has a chance of colliding with Earth in 2032. First detected last month by a telescope in Chile, the space rock — designated 2024 YR4 — measures between 130 and 330 feet (40 to 100 meters) across.  

If 2024 YR4 were to strike, the consequences could be severe. ESA estimates that an asteroid of this size collides with Earth every few thousand years, with the potential to cause significant destruction like destroying a city the size of Kansas. The projected impact date, should it occur, is December 22, 2032. However, scientists stress that it’s too early to pinpoint any potential impact site. 

For now, 2024 YR4 is moving away from Earth and will fade from sight in the coming months. NASA and the European Space Agency (ESA) are using some of the world’s most advanced telescopes to track it before it resurfaces in 2028. The asteroid made its closest approach on Christmas Day, passing about 500,000 miles (800,000 kilometers) away — twice the distance of the moon — before it was identified two days later. 

Despite its ranking at the top of ESA’s asteroid risk list, experts remain cautious rather than alarmed. “We are not worried at all, because of this 99 percent chance it will miss,” said Paul Chodas, director of NASA’s Center for Near Earth Object Studies. “But it deserves attention.” 

Chodas and his team are scouring old sky survey data from 2016, when calculations suggest the asteroid previously passed near Earth. If they locate the object in those images, they may be able to rule out an impact. Otherwise, “the impact probability will just move slowly as we add more observations,” he told AP. 

The reassuring news, according to NASA, is that no other known large asteroids currently have an impact probability exceeding 1%. While the probability of impact is just over 1%, astronomers are working to refine its trajectory before it disappears from view. Still, researchers will continue tracking 2024 YR4 closely, ensuring any risks are well understood long before its next approach.