Plastic waste could double by 2050, study calls for urgent cuts in global production ahead of crucial UN talks

Global plastic production must be reduced to address the growing crisis of plastic pollution, according to a new analysis released ahead of critical international negotiations aimed at establishing the world’s first legally binding treaty on plastic waste. 

The study, led by Samuel Pottinger, highlights that without limits on plastic production, mismanaged plastic waste — pollution that leaches into the environment and poses risks to human health — will double to 121 million tonnes by 2050. Additionally, annual greenhouse gas emissions from the plastic industry are projected to rise by 37 percent over the same period if production remains unchecked. 

The research suggests that four key interventions could dramatically reduce the impact of plastic waste. These include: imposing a global cap on plastic production, investing in waste management infrastructure, introducing a packaging tax, and enforcing a recycling mandate. If implemented, these measures could cut mismanaged plastic waste by up to 91 percent by 2050, while also reducing plastics-related emissions by about a third. 

Ahead of the UN treaty talks in Busan, South Korea, the study -- published in Science --underscores the urgency of reaching an agreement on how to combat plastic pollution. The talks, set to conclude on November 25, are critical, with some countries and lobbyists for the plastic industry pushing back against proposals to cap or reduce production. 

Pottinger, from the University of California, Berkeley, emphasised the importance of reducing plastic production to achieve the treaty's goal of ending plastic pollution. He said, “This research clearly shows that it will be nearly impossible to end plastic pollution without cutting plastic production. The scale of the challenge is immense, but the treaty could almost entirely solve the problem — if ambitious policies, including a production cap, are implemented.” 

More than 50 countries, including the UK, have committed to addressing the full lifecycle of plastic through the ‘Bridge to Busan’ pledge, which includes promoting sustainable production of plastic polymers.  

According to the study in 2020, 32 percent of the 547 million tonnes of plastic produced globally was used for packaging. 

Capping global plastic production at 2020 levels would reduce mismanaged plastic waste by 2050 from an estimated 121 million tonnes to 72 million tonnes. This reduction would come from slowing the relentless increase in plastic production, which has surged since 1950. 

Plastic waste is particularly damaging to ecosystems, breaking down into smaller particles, including micro- and nanoplastics, which harm environments from the Arctic to the ocean depths.  

Pottinger also noted the serious human health risks linked to plastic pollution, including higher rates of cancer, cardiovascular disease, and reproductive issues. The plastic industry’s impact on climate change is also significant, with emissions resulting from the extraction and processing of oil and gas used to make plastic, as well as plastic production and waste management. 

The research analyzed global plastic consumption and waste generation in four regions: North America, China, the EU, and the ‘Majority World’ (the rest of the globe). In 2020, global plastic consumption reached 547 million tonnes, with 86 percent being virgin plastic and 14 percent recycled. China was the largest consumer accounting for 36 percent of global consumption followed by the Majority World at 28 percent, EU at 18 percent and North America at 18 percent. 

While China’s plastic consumption is expected to peak around 2030 and then decline, consumption in North America and the Majority World is projected to grow. Without intervention, global plastic consumption could reach 749 million tonnes by 2050.  

However, the report suggests that implementing key interventions could significantly reduce waste. A packaging consumption tax could cut waste by 145 million tonnes, while a ban on single-use plastics could reduce consumption by 98 million tonnes. A mandate for reusing packaging, such as a deposit return scheme, could cut plastic packaging by 74 million tonnes by 2050. 

The study concludes that these packaging-focused interventions could have substantial environmental benefits, especially since lightweight plastic packaging is a major contributor to plastic pollution in the environment.