Stark warning! Rising temperatures could see one-third of species become extinct by 2100 

A biologist from the University of Connecticut has discovered that up to a third of all species could face extinction by 2100 if greenhouse gas emissions are not reduced or halted. In his study published in the journal Science, Mark Urban analyzed 485 studies conducted over the past three decades on how species adapt to climate change. 

Human-driven greenhouse gas emissions are warming the atmosphere and the seawater. This warming is expected to bring unpredictable weather patterns, with some areas getting wetter and others drier besides an overall increase in warmth. 

The world will also face more extreme weather, such as droughts, hurricanes, typhoons, and intense storms. These shifts will put immense pressure on species unable to control their environment as humans can, which means many will be at risk. 

In his study, Urban analyzed 485 papers that investigated how various species survive environmental changes. Comparing this information with predictions of future warming, he was able to evaluate the impacts on different areas and forecast the survival prospects of various species based on their habitat and ability to migrate or adapt.

Urban found that if global temperatures increase by about 5.4°C by the end of the century (the worst-case scenario), about one-third of all species may become extinct. He also noted that some extinctions may cause chain reactions, in which the death of a smaller species may cause the extinction of a predator that depends on it. Some groups of species are at especially high risk, including amphibians. 

The global average near-surface temperature in 2023 was at 1.45°C about the pre-industrial baseline, which is the highest to date.

According to the United Nations weather, climate, and water-focused agency, World Meteorological Organization, global mean near-surface temperature is likely to reach between 1.1°C and 1.9°C higher than its 1850-1900 baseline for every year in the period of 2024 to 2028. There is an 86% probability that one of those years will set a new record. 

The average global temperature has risen by about 1°C since 1880. The last decade, 2011-2020, is the warmest on record. The global temperature is likely to rise by about 1.5°C by 2050 and 2-4°C by 2100.