Coronavirus lockdown: Aviation industry stares at Rs 25,000 crore revenue loss, says CRISIL

Domestic aviation industry will crash-land this fiscal (FY21) with revenue loss of Rs 24,000-25,000 crore due to the extension of lockdown, according to a CRISIL report.

"Airlines will be the worst-affected, contributing more than 70% of the losses, or nearly Rs 17,000 crore, followed by airport operators with Rs 5,000-5,500 crore, and airport retailers (including retail, food and beverages and duty-free) with Rs 1,700-1,800 crore," the report said.

The coronavirus-led crisis would reverse the growth trend of around 11% per annum, which the industry has reported over the past ten years, making it one of the most adversely affected sectors of the economy, it said.

CRISIL warned that the losses will climb if travel restrictions last longer in hubs such as Mumbai, Delhi, Chennai and Kolkata. "We expect the aviation sector will take at least 6-8 quarters to reach pre-pandemic levels," it said.

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"These are preliminary estimates, and aggregate losses could increase if the lockdown is extended beyond the first quarter. As and when operations resume, overall operational capacity will hover at 50-60% for the rest of the fiscal," say Jagannarayan Padmanabhan, Director and Practice Leader, Transport & Logistics, CRISIL Infrastructure Advisory.

Meanwhile, the roads and highways sector is also expected to report huge losses due to the extension of coronavirus-led lockdown. CRISIL said the sector will see toll operators incurring toll revenue losses of Rs 3,450-3,700 crore during March-June, the estimate suggests. The National Highways Authority of India (NHAI) will lose Rs 2,100-2,200 crore in toll over this period, it said.

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In addition, stakeholders will suffer losses on account of accrued interest, increase in costs of under-construction projects, time overruns, and a rise in disputes between the private sector and government authorities, CRISIL said.