El Nino may play spoilsport with monsoon this year

India and its South Asian neighbours are expected to see below average to average rains this year if the El Nino weather pattern gains strength during the monsoon season , a forum of weather experts said on Wednesday.

"There is a strong consensus about the possibility of evolution of an El Nino event during the summer monsoon season," Reuters quoted D. S. Pai, the lead forecaster of the Indian weather office as saying.

Pai was in Pune to release the consensus forecast of the South Asian Climate Outlook Forum - a group of global weather experts affiliated to the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO).

Rains could be below average in Sri Lanka, Bhutan, and some parts of Pakistan, while an average monsoon is expected in Bangladesh, Nepal and Afghanistan, Pai said.

The India Meteorological Department will release its long-range forecast for the monsoon on Thursday. This will be followed by a detailed monsoon forecast in June.

A strong El Nino, marked by a warming of the sea surface in the Pacific Ocean, can upset the weather pattern causing severe drought in Australia, Southeast Asia and India, while leading to heavy rains in other parts of the world such as the US Midwest and Brazil in rains.

The WMO assessed earlier this month that an El Nino could develop around the middle of the year. This forecast followed predictions by other national forecasters, including weather bureaus in the United States, Japan and Australia, that an El Nino event was likely within months.

India suffered a severe drought in 2009 when monsoon rains failed due to El Nino, though in 1997, one of the strongest El Nino years, rainfall was 2 per cent above average.

The monsoon is the main source of irrigation for India's 235 million farmers and planting of crops ranging from paddy to soybeans and mustard are dependent on the rains. Agriculture represents about 14 per cent India's GDP but more than half the population is still dependent on the farm sector.

A weak monsoon would result in higher inflation at a time when consumer price inflation averaged 10.07 per cent in 2013 even as the nation harvested record crops.

Courtesy: Mail Today