Monsoon to be below normal in Aug-Sep: Met

India's seasonal monsoon will be "below normal" in August and September and could affect farm output in parts of the country, weather scientists said.

"Quantitatively, rainfall for the country as a whole during the period August to September is likely to be 90 per cent of Long Period Average (LPA)," the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Wednesday in its outlook for the second half of the monsoon session.

The annual rain season began on a good note with June receiving 111 per cent falls, followed by a slump in July which witnessed 86 per cent rains.

While the weather office sees 46 per cent probability of below normal (86-94 per cent of LPA) rainfall in the next two months, the probability of deficient rains (less than 85 per cent of LPA) is 27 per cent.

The country has received 95 per cent rainfall of the LPA in June-July.

Weather scientists said that the model error of eight per cent for August-September forecast would mean that some areas may get 98 per cent rain while it may be 82 per cent in other places.

There are chances of farm productivity being affected in regions getting less rainfall, they said.

Earlier this year, the IMD had issued regional monsoon forecasts -- three per cent below normal in northwest India, five per cent below normal in central India and six per cent below normal in the southern peninsular region.

However, the IMD said, the seasonal rainfall over northeast India is likely to be less than 87 per cent of the long period average.