Rabi may not compensate for Kharif's low output

The anticipation that a better rabi (crop) production will offset the loss of the kharif season is gradually appearing to be a remote possibility. The area under rabi cultivation, which accounts for half (51 per cent) of the annual grain production of 264 million tonne, has consistently lagged behind last year's figure and is lower by over six per cent till date.

According to Agriculture Ministry data, wheat, the main rabi crop, was sown on 30.56 million hectares as on January 23, 2015, against 31.36 million hectares in the corresponding period last year. Gram was sown on 8.19 million hectares, against 9.86 million hectares.

Area under oilseeds was down to 7.84 million hectares, against 8.69 million hectares. Acreage of coarse cereals stood at 5.64 million hectares, compared to 5.96 million hectares. Overall, rabi crops were sown on about 58.60 million hectares against 62.48 million hectares last year.

The kharif grain output slipped seven per cent to 120.27 million tonne last year on account of a deficit monsoon. Last year, the monsoon was 12 per cent lower than normal. States like Punjab, Rajasthan and Maharashtra saw a steep decline in rainfall.

A deficit monsoon means low moisture content in the soil, which is not considered optimum for the sowing of rabi crops, including wheat, pulses, oilseeds and rice.

The sowing of rabi crops began sluggishly last November due to high temperature levels. The sowing can continue for another month, but delayed sowing impacts productivity. It is the sowing and maturity of rabi crops that will determine the food inflation trend for the first half of the next financial year (2015/16).