Why Rahul Gandhi will still win with just over 1 lakh votes

As the eighth phase of Lok Sabha polls comes to a close and images of Rahul Gandhi in polling booths start circulating on social media - images in which his nervousness is only too apparent - it's clear that if ever there was a real battle fought in Amethi it has been in this election.

For the very first time, Gandhi has two formidable opponents in Kumar Vishwas from Aam Aadmi Party and Smriti Irani from the BJP. Irani and Vishwas have been camping in Amethi since their candidature was announced. Vishwas has bought a home in Amethi and has moved with his family, his kids are going to school in Amethi. Irani managed to get Narendra Modi, BJP's prime ministerial candidate to throw his weight behind her - that he referred to Irani as his sister is not something that Amethi will dismiss in a hurry.

Yes, the Gandhis are like religion in Amethi, people will vote for the Gandhis -and when you ask them why - the reasons vary from adulation of Rajiv Gandhi to a feeling of responsibility towards the 'bahu and beta' of Amethi. Almost no one will speak about the work done by the Gandhis.

They will speak of tube wells and farm loan waivers given by the Gandhis  and their love for the first family of the country - and it is this loyalty that will score over Vishwas's 40 nights across villages in the Amethi and Irani's Modi magic -at least this election. Gandhi who won with a whopping 464,195 votes - that's nearly 72 per cent of the total votes cast in 2009 , and got  390,179 votes in the 2004 election will lose out on his voter base though.

The youth of Amethi believe in Modi's brand of economics - one key issue that stands out in this superstar constituency is of jobs. Amethi lags behind on several development indicators - its per capita income is nearly half of Uttar Pradesh; MGNREGA -UPA's flagship scheme has been a disaster  with only about 2000 odd families getting employment through the scheme; nearly 83 per cent of households don't have sanitation facilities and the younger generation  that has not seen the days of Rajiv raj are getting a bit tired of this prayer service with zero returns.

Aspirations have evolved - the youth of Amethi yearns for a life well earned-and both Irani and Vishwas have capitalised on that - while they are speaking the language of the youth -Gandhi is sticking to  the well rehearsed and tested 'we are family' tune and yes it might just end up working with the people of Amethi -but this time the victory or the verdict will not be as resounding. There is a clear voice of dissent emerging which will get louder  - estimates are that Gandhi this time-might just win with a margin of over a lakh votes -unlike the previous two elections when the winning margin was 370,198 votes  in 2009 and 290,853 votes in 2004.

Elections 2014 could singularly be the most significant election for Amethi, because this time Irani and Vishwas have ensured that right questions are raised -and its voters will demand answers, perhaps for the very first time.

Amethi has witnessed democracy in all its splendour and hopefully it will benefit from it and emerge brighter and stronger from this precipice of change.
 
If not for its elected representatives, the people of Amethi might just redeem the superstar constituency of its status.