AI platforms like ChatGPT can eat up over 300 million jobs, predicts Goldman Sachs

Goldman Sachs economists have recently said that as many as 300 million full-time jobs around the world could be automated in some way or other with the coming of the newest wave of artificial intelligence with platforms like ChatGPT. 

In a research note titled 'The Potentially Large Effects of Artificial Intelligence on Economic Growth', the investment bank noted that 18 per cent of work globally could be computerised, with the effects felt more deeply in advanced economies than emerging markets. 

The report said that two-third of jobs in the United States and Europe could be automated to a certain extent. 

It noted that AI has partly affected white-collar workers who are seen to be more at risk than manual laborers. Administrative workers and lawyers are expected to be the most affected, the report said.  

''If generative AI delivers on its promised capabilities, the labour market could face significant disruption. Using data on occupational tasks in both the US and Europe, we find that roughly two-thirds of current jobs are exposed to some degree of AI automation, and that generative AI could substitute up to one-fourth of current work,'' the report said. 

Generative AI systems, such as ChatGPT, can create content very similar to human output and could spark a productivity boom over the next decade, the report highlighted. 

ChatGPT has impressive features such as simplifying coding, rapidly create a website from a simple sketch and pass exams with high marks. In March, its developer unveiled the latest version of the software behind the bot, GPT-4. 

However, Goldman Sachs in its report noted that technological innovation that initially displaces workers has historically also created employment growth over the long haul. 

While workplaces may shift, widespread adoption of AI could ultimately increase labour productivity and boost global GDP by 7 per cent annually over a 10-year period, the report said.  

“Although the impact of AI on the labor market is likely to be significant, most jobs and industries are only partially exposed to automation and are thus more likely to be complemented rather than substituted by AI,” the report noted. 

Jobs at risk 

The report has highlighted that the job loss and AI impact will vary from sector to sector. Administrative and legal sectors will see the maximum impact with 46 per cent of administrative jobs and 44 per cent of legal jobs risking replacement by AI. 

Jobs with the lowest exposure to AI include cleaning and maintenance, installation and repair, and construction jobs.  

Physically intensive professions face low risk, with construction facing only a 6 per cent threat while maintenance is looking at 4 per cent probable substitution.