'Like magic to our grandparents': Sam Altman claims superintelligence may be possible in few thousand days

In a blog post titled The Intelligence Age, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman predicts that humanity may achieve superintelligence within just a few thousand days. He paints a future where artificial intelligence (AI) not only amplifies human capabilities but also drives major scientific breakthroughs and global prosperity.

Altman explains that society already functions as a kind of "advanced intelligence," with collective knowledge far exceeding individual capabilities. AI, he argues, will enhance this structure further by solving problems we couldn’t manage on our own. "We are more capable not because of genetic change, but because we benefit from the infrastructure of society being way smarter and more capable than any one of us," Altman writes

He’s confident that the current acceleration of AI development will result in seemingly magical or impossible capabilities in the near future. "It is possible that we will have superintelligence in a few thousand days," Altman claims, adding that even if it takes longer, he’s certain it will happen.

Altman attributes much of AI’s recent progress to deep learning. "In three words: deep learning worked," he says, highlighting how more computational power and data have led to increasingly capable AI systems. As more resources become available, AI continues to improve, solving more complex problems. "To a shocking degree of precision, the more compute and data available, the better it gets at helping people solve hard problems," he adds.

Altman envisions a future where AI dramatically improves life for everyone. He believes that “everyone’s lives can be better than anyone’s life is now,” suggesting that AI could drive economic growth and solve major global issues. He imagines achievements such as climate repair, space colonisation, and the discovery of fundamental laws of physics becoming routine.

However, Altman is cautious about equating prosperity with happiness. While economic improvements can enhance lives, they don't guarantee contentment. Nonetheless, he’s optimistic about AI’s potential to make a meaningful difference worldwide.

Despite his optimism, Altman is aware of the challenges ahead. He acknowledges that AI could disrupt job markets but remains hopeful, arguing that people’s inherent desire to create will be amplified by AI. He also stresses the importance of building the right infrastructure to support AI. Without it, he warns, AI could become a scarce resource controlled by the wealthy, even leading to conflict.