Bollywood banks on Prabhas, Kriti Sanon-starrer 'Adipurush' to save its weak Q1  

 

Adipurush box office collection prediction: All eyes are on bilingual big-budget film Adipurush to reverse Bollywood’s weak showing at the box office in the April-June quarter of financial year 2023-24 (FY24) so far as the Mumbai-centric film industry is yet to recover fully from the impact of Covid-19. 

The mythological film, shot simultaneously in Telugu and Hindi on an estimated budget of Rs 500-700 crore, is slated to release on Friday (June 16) across 5,000 screens in India. On opening day, it is estimated to mop up net box office collection of Rs 50-60 crore in the south Indian languages and Rs 20 crore in Hindi, according to analysts.  

The Prabhas-starrer has grossed Rs 11.02 crore for Day 1 through advance ticket sales across all languages (excluding blocked seats) as of 11 am on Thursday, according to trade portal ‘koimoi’. 

The PVR-INOX stock was hovering around Rs 1,500 on Thursday morning—an all-time high since its post-merger listing on the stock exchange. The stock has climbed more than 60 points since June 9, 2023.  

The film, estimated to make lifetime net domestic collection of Rs 350 crore across languages, is also seen as bringing a much-needed respite for the Hindi box office which is yet to recover fully after Covid-19. The first quarter of FY24 has been a weak one to date as no film except The Kerala Story has done well at box office. There was some respite from select Hollywood movies such as Fast X, said Karan Taurani, Senior Vice President at Elara Capital.

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“We expect a 20% year-on-year decline in Hindi box office collections compared to pre-Covid levels and a sharper 30% drop compared to the previous year as the past year had a high base of collections due to RRR, Bhool Bhulaiyaa 2 and KGF [Chapter 2],” he said in his investor note. 

The last big hit for Bollywood was the Shahrukh Khan-starrer Pathaan in January. The film raked in Rs 543 crore in domestic net box office collection during its 10-week run, according to trade portal Bollywood Hungama.  

Due to a lack of consistency in Hindi films, Elara Capital estimates that recently merged multiplex chain PVR-INOX will see an annual occupancy of 24% compared to 32% pre-Covid. “We believe Q1FY24 occupancy levels may fall tad short of our expectations due to content not doing well on a consistent basis,” he said.  

But occupancy levels may move up towards 27-28% in the July-September as several big budget films are scheduled for release with a more consistent line-up, he added. Some of them include Satyaprem Ki Katha (Kartik Aaryan), Gadar 2 (Sunny Deol), Rocky Aur Rani Ki Prem Kahaani (Ranveer Singh), OMG 2 (Akshay Kumar), Animal (Ranbir Kapoor) and Jawan (Shah Rukh Khan).  

“Q2FY24 may be the best quarter even if half of these films report a healthy box office collection and there are no further delays or change in release dates. Also, box office momentum has to sustain in H2FY24, which looks unlikely, as the number of Hindi films lined up for release remains much lower than pre-COVID levels (30-35% fewer Hindi films vs pre-COVID),” the Elara Capital note said. 

Also Read: Prabhas-starrer Adipurush releases on Friday: Ticket rates rise to up to Rs 2,200 in Delhi; Andhra govt allows Rs 50 price hike

Also Read: 'Adipurush' box office day 1 prediction: Prabhas film likely to collect Rs 30 cr in Hindi belt; will it beat SS Rajamouli’s RRR? Here’s what we know