Can 'Avatar: The Way of Water' beat 'RRR’s box office collections in India?

Titanic-maker James Cameron’s quarter-billion-dollar Hollywood film Avatar: The Way of Water may even pip Telugu movie RRR’s Rs 750 crore net box office collections in India, aided by exorbitant ticket rates and a long run at the box office, to become the third highest grossing film ever in India, according to the people in the industry.      

Currently, Baahubali 2: The Conclusion (Rs 1,030 crore, 2017), KGF: Chapter 2 (Rs 860 crore, 2022) and RRR (Rs 772 crore, 2022) hold the record for the highest-ever net collections in India, according to trade portal Sacnilk.  

Cameron’s sequel to his 2009 blockbuster film Avatar is estimated to make Rs 500-600 crore in net lifetime collections in India across the languages it will be released in, according to a note by brokerage firm Elara Capital. That would earn it the fourth spot after RRR. 

But the firm’s analyst Karan Taurani says the film has a greater probability of a higher shelf life given its promise of a family-oriented visual splendour. “Most of the films these days run in theatres for three weeks. But once the content of a film is really good and picks up after the second week, it moves close to 5-6 weeks of theatrical run. Avatar 2 is one of those films which will have a reasonable start and, in a best-case scenario, word of mouth can make it surpass Rs 700 crore,” says the Senior Vice-President at Elara Capital.  

Besides, the tickets are priced exorbitantly, going up to even Rs 1,900 per ticket in Bengaluru multiplexes in the IMAX format, according to ticket booking portal Bookmyshow.com. The site also shows that screens are almost full even at those rates. 

Miraj Cinemas MD Amit Sharma says the ticket prices are justified because of the costs gone into making the film. The film has been made on an estimated $250-$350 million budget, with director Cameron saying in a recent interview that the film has to make $2 billion in worldwide gross just to break even. It is releasing in 2D, 3D, 3D ScreenX, 4DX 3D and IMAX 3D in English, Kannada, Malayalam, Tamil, Telugu and Hindi in more than 3,000 screens in India.  

“This is one of the most expensive films in the world. You cannot price the tickets for a film made on a budget of a half a billion dollars at the same level as a film made on Rs 15-20 crore budget. Producers and distributors deserve better prices to recoup the investment,” says Sharma.  

He pegs the opening day collection on December 16 to be around Rs 45-50 crore across languages and formats it is being released in. Trade analyst Taran Adarsh tweeted that the film has sold 5.5 lakh tickets sold across multiplex chains PVR, INOX Leisure and Cinepolis for the opening weekend till Thursday 10 am. Trade portal Sacnilk pegs the advance booking number at more than 5.6 lakh tickets sold all over India with a total collection so far of Rs 16.57 crore across languages and formats.  

Film trade analyst Komal Nahta also sees Rs 500 crore as an achievable number for the Avatar sequel. “In fact, it could happen because of the high rates initially. The craze is almost unprecedented. So, people will rush to watch it despite high rates, making it simpler to reach the Rs 500 crore-mark.” 

Also read: 'Avatar: The Way of Water' advance booking: 5.49 lakh tickets of James Cameron film sold so far 

Also read: Why theatres in Tamil Nadu and other southern states are refusing to screen 'Avatar: The Way of Water'