Sooryavanshi set to collect Rs 60 cr-Rs 100 cr over Diwali weekend

All eyes are on the Rs 200-crore-plus Sooryavanshi to revive the fortunes of a down-on-its-luck Bollywood which has not had a big, successful release in 19 months as the Akshay Kumar-starrer is expected to rake in Rs 60 crore-Rs 100 crore on the opening weekend. 

Film trade analyst Komal Nahta estimates the film to collect Rs 75 crore-Rs 100 crore between Friday and Sunday, while brokerage firm Elara Capital's analyst Karan Taurani who tracks listed multiplex chains PVR and INOX

Leisure pegs the figure at Rs 60 crore-Rs 70 crore. The analysts estimate a lifetime net collection of Rs 200 crore-250 crore and Rs 120 crore -Rs 140 crore, respectively. 

Nahta calls the release of the Hindi film on November 5, the largest after the COVID outbreak, a big event. "It will give us an idea of whether people are willing to come to the movies. Since it's a big-budget, big star-cast film, it will be an indication of things to come." 

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"In terms of reach too, it is estimated to release in 3,500 and 1,200 screens across India and overseas, respectively," says Taurani, who is SVP and research analyst at the firm. 

He adds that the collection numbers are still 30% lower compared to pre-COVID levels, impacted by timing restriction and occupancy cap in some states as well as some part of the audience likely taking more time to return to the cinemas.  

Except Maharashtra and Kerala, all major states like UP, Delhi, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Telangana, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Orissa and Punjab have allowed 100% occupancy in theatres. Theatres in Maharashtra, which account for 25-30% of Bollywood's box office collections, have reopened at 50% capacity. 

A healthy pace of vaccination is underway with the country crossing the 1 crore-mark; there is festive cheer in the air as people throng hotels, malls and resume travel - factors better positioning the film to draw Hindi film audiences back to the theatres, unlike Kumar's previous but lacklustre outing in August - Bell Bottom. 

Further, there are no other big Hindi releases in theatres or OTTs slated for release on the same day. English movie Enemy is the only other big contender. But experts say it's not a contest between the two films as they can run alongside each other comfortably. 

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"The challenge is more about the public coming out in full force to the cinemas. That was not the case with Bell Bottom. Second, in some states, even now capacity is at 50% and there are curfews. So those are the two challenges to overcome," says Nahta. 

A reported tussle between the film's producer-distributor and multiplex owners over the revenue collection share which led to advance bookings not being opened for the film was also resolved late on Thursday. The former demanded a higher share than what the theatre owners were willing to share. 

Director Rohit Shetty's Instagram post on Thursday night said: "Last battle won! Sooryavanshi releasing across all multiplexes and single screens all over the country. 

The film is jointly bankrolled by Reliance Entertainment, Rohit Shetty Picturez, Karan Johar's Dharma Productions and Akshay Kumar's Cape of Good Films. It is distributed by Reliance Entertainment.

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