US Elections 2024: Kamala Harris gains momentum against Donald Trump as US presidential race becomes tighter, predicts new poll

The 2024 US Presidential race has tightened, with Vice President Kamala Harris holding a narrow lead, according to the latest polls. With less than two months until Election Day, Harris has gained momentum, edging ahead of her Republican opponent, Donald Trump.

A new ABC News/Ipsos poll released on Sunday shows Harris leading Trump 50% to 46% among all adults and registered voters. Among likely voters, Harris’ lead has now expanded to 52% versus Trump’s 46%. These numbers are consistent with polling before the Democratic National Convention, where Harris was at 49% and Trump at 45%.

Pollsters note that while most figures have remained steady since August, Harris has made significant gains among women, now leading by 13 points (54% to 41%), up from a 6-point lead before the convention. Harris also received higher ratings for her campaign, with 56% of Americans viewing her performance as excellent or good, compared to 41% for Trump.

In key battleground states, Harris has maintained a slight advantage, with nearly every national survey placing her within the margin of error. NBC News reported that Harris is performing better against Trump than Biden did before exiting the race, signaling growing confidence in her leadership. The concept of a margin of error, as explained by Pew Research, refers to the range within which a survey result is expected to fall relative to the true population value.

However, Trump continues to hold an edge on issues critical to voters, outperforming Harris on trust regarding the economy and inflation by 8 points in each category. He also has a 9-point lead on handling the US-Mexico border. On the other hand, Harris is seen as more trustworthy on protecting American democracy and Supreme Court appointments.

The latest polling index by The Hill and Decision Desk HQ shows Harris with a 3.8-point national lead over Trump. The ABC News/Ipsos poll, conducted from August 23-27 with 2,496 completed interviews, has a margin of sampling error of 2.1 percentage points at the 95% confidence level.

Despite Harris' gains, Trump remains a formidable opponent, consistently polling around 47% nationwide. Polls conducted by The Wall Street Journal, EPIC-MRA in Michigan, and Bloomberg/Morning Consult in Georgia and Michigan also show Trump at this level of support. However, the overall trend indicates a shift since Biden's departure, with Harris now holding a narrow edge.

Swing state polls reveal a complex and evolving landscape. Bloomberg/Morning Consult polls show Harris overtaking Trump within the margin of error in Georgia (50%), Michigan (49%), Nevada (50%), and Pennsylvania (51%). In Wisconsin, she holds a more decisive lead at 53%, while she is tied with Trump in Arizona and North Carolina. This is a stark contrast to Biden’s performance in these states, where he struggled to gain traction.

Before Harris took over the Democratic ticket, Biden trailed Trump even before the June 27 debate that further weakened his campaign. Harris, however, is now viewed as a more trusted leader and is performing better across the board.

Additional polls from The Wall Street Journal, Quinnipiac, and Suffolk/USA Today also show Harris in the lead, with percentages ranging from 48% to 49%. Trump remains close behind, polling between 43% and 48% in these surveys.

The ABC News/Ipsos poll highlights Harris’ ability to leverage her campaign effectively, despite the race remaining highly competitive. Trump, while maintaining a solid base, faces challenges in closing the gap with Harris, who has managed to capitalize on recent Democratic momentum.

As both campaigns ramp up their efforts, the coming weeks will be crucial in determining whether Harris can maintain her lead or if Trump will stage a comeback. With the presidential election fast approaching, all eyes are on how these dynamics will unfold.