Donald Trump wins US elections 2024: Key impact on H-1B Visas, defence, trade with India

Donald Trump has officially returned to the White House, crossing the 270 winning mark, winning the US elections by a huge margin. Now, his election as the 47th president of the US raises significant questions about the future of India's interests in the US, particularly concerning H-1B visas, defence cooperation, and trade relations.

H-1B Visa Concerns

One of the most pressing issues for the Indian workforce is the fate of the H-1B visa program, which allows US companies to employ foreign workers in specialized fields such as technology and engineering. Trump has been a vocal critic of the H-1B system, describing it as detrimental to American workers. During his presidency, he pushed for reforms to increase the minimum wage for H-1B holders, which would make it harder for many Indian tech professionals to obtain these visas. If Trump were to reclaim the presidency, significant changes to the program could restrict access for Indian workers, raising concerns among those looking to migrate to the US for job opportunities.

Defence cooperation and security

In terms of defence, Trump's approach may resonate with India's strategic interests, particularly in countering China’s growing influence in the Indo-Pacific region. Under Trump, the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD) between the US, India, Japan, and Australia was revitalized, focusing on enhancing military collaboration and joint exercises.

Given Trump's positions on China and global terrorism, an administration led by him could further deepen defence ties between Washington and New Delhi, laying the groundwork for continued military cooperation and strategic alignment.

Trade relations at stake

On the trade front, Trump’s stance is anticipated to pose challenges for India. He has long criticized the country for imposing high tariffs on American products, suggesting that a Trump administration would push for revisions to India’s trade policies. During his time in office, he threatened to introduce reciprocal taxes in response to India’s tariff structure.

Economists have warned that Trump’s aggressive trade policies could impact India’s economy, although forecasts suggest that any significant downturn might be marginal. Trade relations could thus become a contentious issue, with possible pressures on India to reduce tariffs and adapt its export strategies.

Throughout his political career, Trump has admired Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, referring to him as a "good friend." This camaraderie was highlighted when Modi congratulated Trump on his election victory via social media platform X, stating his eagerness to "renew our collaboration to further strengthen the India-US Comprehensive Global and Strategic Partnership." Modi emphasised the importance of working together for the betterment of both nations and promoting global peace and prosperity.

In a recent statement, Trump reaffirmed his commitment to enhancing ties with India, particularly addressing Hindu voters during the Diwali festival. He declared, "We will also protect Hindu Americans against the anti-religion agenda of the radical left," and vowed to strengthen the partnership with India and Prime Minister Modi.