US Election 2024: Nail-biter like 2020 or early call, how long will it take to know who won the race to White House?

As Americans gear up to vote on November 5, the big question is how long it will take to know who the next president is. In 2016, Donald Trump’s victory was clear the morning after Election Day. But in 2020, it took until the following Saturday to call the race for Joe Biden. This year, either timeline is possible.

If the race comes down to a few thousand votes in key states, we could be in for another 2020-style wait. But if one candidate performs significantly better than the current razor-thin polling suggests, the outcome could become clear much sooner.

What Happened in 2020?
The 2020 election saw unprecedented delays. Votes were cast on November 3, but states like Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin were left uncalled the next morning. Mail-in ballots, which surged due to the pandemic, took time to count. Biden inched toward an Electoral College majority on Wednesday, but it wasn’t until Saturday, November 7, that the race was finally called for him. Pennsylvania's results clinched his win, though states like Nevada and Georgia were declared even later.

Red and Blue Mirages
Election night results can be misleading. Some states count mail-in ballots first, while others prioritize in-person votes. Since Democrats have historically favored mail-in voting and Republicans have shown up more in person, early leads can give false impressions. In 2020, these “mirages” fueled claims of fraud, but nothing was amiss. It simply took a few days to get the full picture.

What About 2024?
The dynamics may shift. More Republicans are expected to use early and mail-in voting, which could make the vote distribution less skewed by party lines. States like Michigan have adjusted their rules to allow early processing of mail ballots, likely speeding up results. Still, many states haven’t made these changes, so the process won’t be drastically different.

When Could We Know?
Polls in crucial swing states close between 7 p.m. and 10 p.m. Eastern Time (ET), which translates to 5:30 a.m. to 8:30 a.m. Indian Standard Time (IST) on November 6. Here’s how the timeline unfolds:

• 7 p.m. ET / 5:30 a.m. IST: The first results could start coming in from Georgia.
• 7:30 p.m. ET / 6:00 a.m. IST: North Carolina results might provide early clues.
• 8 p.m. ET / 6:30 a.m. IST: Polls close in Pennsylvania and most of Michigan.
• 9 p.m. ET / 7:30 a.m. IST: Wisconsin and Arizona begin reporting.
• 10 p.m. ET / 8:30 a.m. IST: Polls close in Nevada.

If Kamala Harris performs well in Georgia and North Carolina, it could indicate an early night. However, if Donald Trump shows strength, attention will shift to the slower-counting battlegrounds in the Midwest. The final picture may not emerge until states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin finish counting.

While Americans may be accustomed to knowing the results on election night, the reality is that vote counting has never been fully completed in a single day. In close races, results might take days or weeks, especially if legal disputes arise. Congress will officially certify the electoral votes on January 6, 2025, and the new president will take office on January 20.