US Elections 2024: Kamala Harris edges past Donald Trump in tight Pennsylvania race as suburban voters swing her way

Vice President Kamala Harris holds a slight edge over former President Donald Trump in Pennsylvania, according to a recent AARP poll, highlighting the intensifying battle for this key swing state. The survey shows Harris with 49% support compared to Trump’s 47%, while Green Party candidate Jill Stein garners 1%, and Libertarian candidate Chase Oliver receives negligible backing. An additional 3% of voters remain undecided.

In a head-to-head matchup, Harris's lead expands slightly to 50% over Trump's 47%, with 3% still on the fence. This marks a significant shift from an April poll, conducted before President Joe Biden withdrew from the race, when Trump led Biden by 5 points.

The latest numbers reflect broader trends in Harris's growing support. Among voters aged 18-49, Harris now commands a 54% to 40% lead over Trump, a 15-point increase since April. Many of these younger voters previously leaned towards third-party candidates or were undecided, indicating a consolidation of support behind Harris. In contrast, Trump’s backing in this demographic has remained relatively unchanged from earlier in the year.

One of the most striking shifts is the dramatic reduction in third-party and undecided voters. In April, 13% of Pennsylvania voters supported third-party candidates, a number that has now dwindled to just 3%. Similarly, undecided voters have decreased from 5% to 3%, showing a more polarized electorate heading into the final stretch of the campaign.

While Harris has gained ground with younger voters, Trump continues to maintain an advantage among those aged 50-64, leading 53% to 43%. However, this gap has narrowed significantly from April, when Biden trailed Trump by 16 points in this age group. Harris has also made inroads in rural Pennsylvania, where Trump’s once commanding 36-point lead over Biden has shrunk to an 18-point advantage, with Trump now leading 58% to 40%.

The suburbs tell a different story. In suburban Pennsylvania, Harris has surged ahead, now leading Trump 53% to 43%, an 11-point swing since April, when Trump held a narrow lead over Biden in these critical areas.

Other polling data from The Hill and Decision Desk HQ indicates an even tighter race, with Harris holding a razor-thin margin of 48.9% to Trump’s 48.3%. As both campaigns intensify their efforts in Pennsylvania, the state remains a pivotal battleground that could determine the outcome of the 2024 election. In 2020, Biden narrowly won Pennsylvania, underscoring its critical importance in the race to the White House.