US elections 2024: Which states can turnaround the fate of Donald Trump and Kamala Harris; check poll survey results  

US elections 2024-25: In the current US election, the competition is getting intense as the polling day approaches. Identifying the frontrunner in the polls has become increasingly challenging. The swing states play a crucial role in the 2024 Presidential elections as they are strategically important in the Electoral College, where candidates must secure a majority to win.

Following President Joe Biden's withdrawal from the race on July 21, Kamala Harris emerged as the Democratic nominee. This decision came after an internal party uprising following Biden's underwhelming debate performance. Before this development, polls consistently predicted that Trump would defeat Biden in most battleground states, despite Biden winning six out of seven in the 2020 election, with North Carolina being the only exception.

With four days until Election Day 2024, a recent poll revealed a dead heat between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump in key swing states. Harris is ahead in the "blue wall" states of Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan, but overall polling averages indicate that neither candidate holds a considerable lead in any of the seven battleground states. Wisconsin frequently serves as a crucial determinant in the outcomes of US Presidential elections, particularly among swing states.

According to a recent HarrisX/Forbes poll released on Thursday, Harris currently holds a slim 49%-48% lead among voters in all seven battleground states. This places the two candidates in a statistical tie, with 14% of swing state voters still undecided, leaving room for potential changes in the race.

Pennsylvania

In the state of Pennsylvania, the race between Harris and Trump is incredibly close. According to recent polls, Harris is ahead by a slim margin in some polls, while Trump is leading in others. The Marist and Washington Post polls show Harris ahead by 2% and 1%, respectively, while Fox News and CNN/SSRS polls have the candidates tied at 48%. 

The CBS/YouGov poll shows a tie at 49%, while Trump is up by 1% in the Quinnipiac poll. Harris leads by 1% in the Cooperative Election Study survey. Monmouth finds Trump ahead among all registered voters, but Harris leads among regular voters. Overall, Trump is currently leading Harris by just 0.4 points in the FiveThirtyEight polling average.

Michigan

In the latest Marist poll, Harris is currently ahead by three points, with a 51%-48% lead. However, a Washington Post poll released recently shows Trump with a rare lead of 47%-45%. Nonetheless, other surveys conducted this week have shown Harris with the advantage. The Fox News poll has her leading by 48%-46%, with a tie at 49% when excluding third-party candidates. 

Additionally, the CES poll, which surveyed 2,336 respondents, has Harris leading 51%-46%, while the CNN/SSRS poll shows her ahead by 48%-43%. Conversely, Trump leads in the Emerson survey released on Tuesday, with a margin of error of 3 points, by 49%-48%. On average, Harris is currently up by 1.1 points in Michigan according to the polling average on FiveThirtyEight.

Wisconsin

In Wisconsin, Harris is leading Trump by narrow margins in several recent polls. According to the Marist survey, Harris is up by 2 points at 50%-48%, while the CES poll shows Harris ahead by 3 points at 50%-47%. The CNN/SSRS poll has Harris leading by 6 points at 51%-45%, and the Marquette poll shows Harris with a 1-point lead at 50%-49%. On the other hand, Trump is ahead in the Emerson survey with a 1-point lead at 49%-48%, and the two candidates are tied at 48% in the Quinnipiac poll. Harris is slightly ahead in the FiveThirtyEight polling average by 0.7 points.

Nevada

In Nevada, Harris is leading Trump by slim margins in some recent polls. The Emerson poll released on Friday shows Harris ahead by 1 point at 48%-47%, with a margin of error of 3.6 points. In the CES survey, Harris is leading by 4 points at 51%-47%. However, the CNN/SSRS survey released on Tuesday has Trump ahead by 1 point at 48%-47%. In the Bloomberg poll from Oct. 23, Harris is leading by a narrow margin of 0.5 points at 48.8%-48.3%, with a margin of error of 5%. Harris is slightly ahead in the FiveThirtyEight polling average by 0.1 points.

North Carolina

In North Carolina, Harris was reported as leading with a 48%-47% margin in a CNN/SSRS survey released on Thursday, with a margin of error of 4.5 points. This result contrasts with other polls conducted this week, such as a Fox News survey showing Trump ahead by 49%-47% (or 50%-49% without third party candidates). Additionally, Trump leads by 50%-48% in surveys from the Cooperative Election Study, Marist, and Emerson College released within the past week. According to FiveThirtyEight's average, Trump currently maintains a 1.3-point advantage.

Overall, the data suggests a closely contested race with the potential for shifts as undecided voters make their decisions in the coming weeks.

Georgia

In Georgia, according to recent polling data, President Trump is slightly ahead with a 48%-47% edge in the Thursday CNN/SSRS poll with a margin of error of 4.7%. Additionally, he leads by a more significant margin in the CES survey (51%-46% with 2,663 respondents) and the Bloomberg poll (49.9%-48.4%). However, the Marist poll and the Washington Post-Schar poll show a tied race at 49% and Vice President Harris leading by a margin of 51%-47%, respectively. Trump maintains a 1.6-point lead in FiveThirtyEight's polling average.

Arizona

In Arizona, former President Trump is currently leading with 51% to 47% in the CES survey, based on responses from 2,066 participants. Additionally, Trump holds a slight lead of 50% to 49% in a Marist poll conducted on October 24th with a margin of error of 3.7%. In another poll by the Washington Post-Schar School, Trump is ahead with 49% to 46% with a margin of error of 5%. Meanwhile, Vice President Harris is leading with 48% to 47% in a recent CNN/SSRS poll, with a margin of error of 4.4%. On average, Trump leads by 2.3 points in the polling average from FiveThirtyEight.