Impact of festivals on COVID-19 cases to be clear in 2-3 weeks, says Dr NK Arora

To see the impact of festivals on the COVID-19 cases in India, we will have to wait and watch for next 2-3 weeks till 25th November says Dr N.K Arora, a key member of India’s COVID-19 task force.  

“We will have to wait and watch to see the impact of the festivals on the COVID-19 cases in India, but having said that we have to see these things in a context, the context is that high seropositivity rate along with high vaccination rate has an impact on Covid-19 cases,” he added.

Arora – who is the head of India’s National Technical Advisory Group on Immunisation -- argued that the country’s baseline seropositivity is high in some states, such as in Delhi where seropositivity rate is 97 per cent and even in several other states where the seropositivity rate is above 85 per cent.  In the backdrop of high seropositivity rate, there can be some increase in COVID-19 cases, but not a huge surge in the cases in coming week will happen, he believes.

Talking about Delta plus variant, he said, “Indian SARS-CoV-2 Genomics Consortium (INSACOG) under which there are 37 laboratories, we are doing weekly review of data that has come up. I must tell that Delta plus variant and its sub variants are there since April in India so it’s not something new or something that we don’t know.”

He said that in European countries the concern was AY.4.2 variant but here in India it was identified long ago. “Since April-May we identified AY.4.2. So far we have not seen Delta plus overtaking delta. The growth rate of this variant is not much of concern as of now,” he said.

“Having said that I want to add that vigilance is a fundamental thing because we don’t know when a new variant would come,” Arora added.

Throwing light on the immediate vaccination target, Arora pointed out that by the end of this month, India is targeting 100 per cent vaccination of adult with at least one dose.  He also said that from next year onwards around 3-5 billion doses would be available in the country and India will be the major supplier in the world.  

On being asked about administering booster dose in India, Arora said, “We can’t start administering booster doses [just] because Israel and some other countries are doing. We have to understand that India is in different epidemiological zone, and a large chunk of our population have had natural infection.” He said, “We are keeping a close watch on the situation and will take the decision as situation will demand.”

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