Will 'odd man' be cornered? BJP-Shiv Sena's dominance in Maharashtra may spell trouble for Ajit Pawar

NCP's Ajit Pawar is the 'odd man' in Mahayuti. His return to Mahayuti was a matter of convenience, as opposed to the natural alliance of Shiv Sena and BJP. Pawar's ideological stance is different from that of Eknath Shinde's Shiv Sena and BJP, who had been together for decades except for a brief separation when Uddhav Thackeray crossed over to the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) in 2019. And the differences between Ajit Pawar and Devendra Fadnavis were out in the open during the assembly election campaigning. 

For Ajit Pawar, the ideal scenario would have been one where the Sena and BJP, together, failed to cross the majority mark. This would have positioned him as a crucial kingmaker, enabling him to leverage his influence to shape the next government. Even during the campaign, NCP leader Nawab Malik hinted at such possibilities, asserting that "anything can happen after results."

Malik was clear that Ajit would play his cards if the BJP-Sena needed his support to form the government. He also referred to 2019, when Uddhav Thackeray despite in a pre-poll alliance crossed over to the MVA. However, the assembly election result has crushed the NCP's hope of playing the kingmaker's role even as the party has done well and is set to win 35-plus seats.

The BJP is likely to win 120-plus seats and Shiv Sena 55 — together they have crossed the magic number of 145, required to take control of Maharashtra.    
 
Why Ajit Pawar is an 'odd man' in Mahayuti

Ticket to Nawab Mailk 

Devendra Fadnavis was dead against giving a ticket to Nawab Malik, who is facing a money laundering probe by ED. Malik is also accused of having links with underworld don Dawood Ibrahim. Despite stiff opposition from Sena and BJP, Ajit Pawar fielded Malik from Mankhurd Shivaji Nagar. Fadnavis had openly said that there was tension in Mahayuti over Nawab Malik's candidature and that it would not back the NCP.      

'Batenge to Katenge' 

Ajit Pawar also objected to BJP's 'Batenge toh katenge' (If we divide, we will be cut), a slogan coined by Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath. While Eknath Shinde's Shiv Sena backed the slogan, Ajit Pawar said this slogan had no place in Maharashtra. "We all have opposed it. Someone told me that BJP's Pankaja Munde has also opposed this slogan. A CM of a state comes here and says 'batenge toh katenge', immediately we said such slogans will not work here as Maharashtra works on the principles of Ambedkar," Pawar was quoted as saying by news agency ANI.

Fadnavis had responded to Pawar and said that the latter needed some time to understand the slogan. "For decades, Ajit Pawar stayed with such ideologies which are secular and anti-Hindu. There is no real secularism amongst those who call themselves secularists. He has stayed with people for whom opposing Hindutva is secular. It will take some time for him to understand the mood of the public."

Waqf Board Bill 

Ajit Pawar is also not on the same page with Sena and BJP when it comes to the Centre's bill to amend the Waqf Board. After the bill was introduced, Ajit Pawar in a rally said his NCP will not allow any injustice to Muslims in the Waqf Board Bill. "NCP has decided that if you (Muslims) have any concerns regarding this bill, then we will listen to your concerns. We will not let any injustice happen to minorities. We will not let injustice happen to anyone," he said while speaking at NCP's Jan Sanman Yatra in Dhule. 

Ajit Pawar also, in a subtle way, reminded the BJP that it was in power in Delhi with support from JDU, TDP, and other allies. He said the NDA government in the Centre has MPs from Chandrababu Naidu's TDP, Nitish Kumar's JDU, Chirag Paswan's LJP, and Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena. "NCP also has 3 MPs...we will discuss this (Bill). And this is our promise that we will not allow any injustice to minorities."

This result solidifies the BJP-Sena's dominance, leaving little room for Ajit Pawar to play a decisive role. His ideological clashes with the coalition and his overtures to minority communities may further isolate him in Mahayuti. For now, Ajit faces an uphill battle to maintain relevance within a coalition that increasingly views him as a liability. In the Lok Sabha, Ajit Pawar could win just 1 of 4 seats. However, in the assembly polls, he has emerged stronger and ahead of Sharad Pawar's NCP.