PM Modi, Ajay Rai, Smriti Irani, Dimple Yadav: Key contests in Uttar Pradesh

Lok Sabha elections: The northern state of Uttar Pradesh holds the key to the power at the Centre with its 80 Lok Sabha seats. A saffron sweep in the northern state is key for the BJP to realise Prime Minister Narendra Modi's clarion call of Abki baar 400 paar, with the BJP alone winning 370 seats.

The state, especially the Gandhi family pocket boroughs Amethi and Rae Bareli, are key to the Congress' battle for survival in India's political landscape. The Samajwadi Party (SP) and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) have also entered the electoral fray to battle it out after the drubbing they got in the 2014 and 2019 general elections. 

Will UP go the saffron route again or vote for change this time remains to be seen. While the BJP has gone all guns blazing to win the state by fielding Prime Minister Narendra Modi from Varanasi against Uttar Pradesh Congress chief Ajay Rai, the Samajwadi Party has gone for gangster-politician late Mukhtar Ansari's brother Afzal Ansari in Ghazipur and party chief Akhilesh Yadav's wife Dimple Yadav in Mainpuri. 

Key contests to watch for in Uttar Pradesh

Varanasi: Narendra Modi (BJP) vs Ajay Rai (Congress)

This will be the most anticipated contest in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections. Narendra Modi has won from the constituency in both the 2014 and 2019 general polls with a resounding majority. 

In the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, PM Modi won the seat with over 6.74 lakh votes and commanded a vote share of 63.6 per cent. Ajay Rai trailed behind Samajwadi Party's Shalini Yadav, who garnered over 1.95 lakh votes and a vote share of 18.4 per cent. Rai, on the other hand, managed to get more than 1.52 lakh votes and a vote share of 14.4 per cent. 

In the 2014 general elections, Prime Minister Modi won from Varanasi by over 5.81 lakh votes and a vote share of 56.4 per cent. AAP's Arvind Kejriwal was a distant second with over 2.09 lakh votes and a vote share of 20.3 per cent. Ajay Rai landed on the third spot with over 75,000 votes and a vote share of 7.3 per cent. 

Lucknow: Rajnath Singh (BJP) vs Ravidas Mehrotra (SP) and Sarvar Malik (BSP)

The Lucknow Lok Sabha, which comprises of five assembly segments, will witness a tripartite contest. The five assembly segments in the Lucknow Lok Sabha are namely Lucknow West, Lucknow North, Lucknow East, Lucknow Central, and Lucknow Cantt.

The saffron party will field Union Defence Minister Rajnath Singh from the seat for the third time whereas Ravidas Mehrotra and Sarvar Malik have been fielded from SP and BSP respectively. In the 2019 general elections, Singh defeated Samajwadi Party's Poonam Sinha by a margin of over 3.47 lakh votes and commanded a vote share of 56.70 per cent.

In 2014, Singh won against Congress' Rita Bahuguna Joshi by a margin of over 2.72 lakh votes and a vote share of 54.27 per cent. Ravidas Mehotra held the office for the Lucknow Central constituency and won from here in 2012 but lost in 2017.

In the 2022 assembly polls, Sarvar Malik of the BSP unsuccessfully contested against sitting MP Rajnath Singh and SP MLA Ravidas Mehrotra for the Lucknow North seat. 

Pilibhit: Jitin Prasada (BJP) vs Bhagwat Saran Gangwar (SP) vs Anis Ahmed (BSP)

In Pilibhit, BJP has replaced Varun Gandhi with UP minister Jitin Prasada. Maneka will contest from Sultanpur, where she won in 2019. Prasada, a former Congress member, has a challenging task of establishing himself in Pilibhit.

Despite his claims of full support from the party, locals suggest those close to Varun are unhappy with BJP's decision. The deep roots of Maneka and Varun in Pilibhit pose a challenge for Prasada. Samajwadi Party's Bhagwat Saran Gangwar, a former minister, is considered to have a hold on the influential Kurmi voters. The BSP has fielded Anis Ahmed, a former Uttar Pradesh minister, who is expected to attract a substantial number of Muslim votes. 

Amethi: Smriti Irani (BJP) vs Opposition candidate yet to be declared

In this Gandhi family bastion, the BJP has repeated Union minister Smriti Irani. The opposition, however, is yet to declare a candidate on this seat. In the 2019 general elections, Irani defeated Rahul Gandhi by a margin of more than 4.68 lakh votes and a vote share of 49.7 per cent.

Rahul Gandhi, on the other hand, secured over 4.13 lakh votes and a vote share of 43.9 per cent. In the 2014 general polls, the Gandhi scion won this seat by a margin of more than 4.08 lakh votes and commanded a vote share of 46.7 per cent. Irani came in second with more than 3 lakh votes and a vote share of 34.4 per cent. 

Raebareli: Candidates not announced yet

Both the Congress and the BJP are yet to announce their candidates from another Gandhi family bastion. In the 2019 general elections, Sonia Gandhi won from this seat by a margin of over 5.34 lakh votes and a massive vote share of 55.8 per cent. BJP's Dinesh Pratap Singh secured 3.67 lakh votes and a vote share of 38.4 per cent.

In 2014, Sonia Gandhi won from the constituency with a thumping 5.26 lakh votes and a vote share of 63.8 per cent. BJP's Ajay Agrawal was a distant second with more than 1.73 lakh votes and 21.1 per cent vote share. 

Gorakhpur: Ravi Kishan (BJP) vs Kajal Nishad (SP)

Gorakhpur, which comprises of five assembly segments, is a general seat. The seat has been represented by Uttar Pradesh CM Yogi Adityanath five times-- 1998, 1999, 2004, 2009 and 2014. The BJP has gone for star power again in Gorakhpur as it has fielded Bhojpuri superstar Ravi Kishan from the constituency. 

Ravi Kishan won from the constituency with a more than 7.17 lakh votes and a massive vote share of 60.5 per cent. The Samajwadi Party (SP), on the other hand, has fielded a new face Kajal Nishad. Before entering politics, Nishad was actively involved in entertainment industry and has worked in shows like Lapataganj. 

Mainpuri: Dimple Yadav (SP) vs Jaiveer Singh Thakur (BJP) 

The Samajwadi Party has fielded Akhilesh Yadav's wife and current MP Dimple Yadav again. Manipuri is a Samajwadi Party bastion and Dimple's father-in-law Mulayam Singh Yadav's legacy seat. In the 2022 bypolls after Mulayam Singh Yadav's death and Azam Khan's disqualification, Yadav won the seat by more than 2.88 lakh votes.

The BJP, on the other hand, picked UP minister Jaiveer Singh Thakur to contest against Dimple Yadav from the constituency. After his candidature was announced, Thakur said in 2022, Dimple won the bypoll due to sympathy wave after Mulayam Singh Yadav's death but "time has crossed" now. He said people are questioning her about her work in the constituency and that she has no satisfactory answers. 

Ghazipur: Afzal Ansari (SP) vs Paras Nath Rai (BJP)

In one of the most popular seats in Purvanchal, the Samajwadi Party has fielded Afzal Ansari, brother of gangster-politician Mukhtar Ansari. BJP, on the other hand, has fielded Paras Nath Rai, considered close to Jammu and Kashmir Lieutenant Governor Manoj Sinha. 

In the 2019 general elections, Afzal Ansari won the seat on a BSP ticket with a margin of over 5.66 lakh votes and a vote share of 51.11 per cent. In the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, Sinha won the seat by over 3.06 lakh votes and a vote share of 17.04 per cent. 

This is Paras Nath Rai's debut in electoral politics. Rai is associated with the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) and is also the managing director of Madan Mohan Malviya Inter College in Ghazipur. 

Uttar Pradesh Lok Sabha election trends

As per the India Today Mood of the Nation survey, the BJP is expected to get around 70 seats and secure 52 per cent vote share in the state in the upcoming general elections. The saffron party is expected to get around 72 seats with support from Anupriya Patel's Apna Dal (S).

The opposition INDIA bloc is likely to get less than 10 seats. While the Samajwadi Party (SP) is likely to get 7 seats, the Congress is likely to get just one. SP will witness a decrease in its vote share from 39 per cent to 30 per cent whereas the Congress is likely to keep its vote share intact at 6 per cent. 

In the 2019 General elections, the BJP won 62 out of 80 seats whereas the Samajwadi Party won 5 seats. The Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) won 10 seats and the Congress could manage to win just one seat. 

In the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, the BJP won 71 out of the 78 seats contested whereas the Apna Dal bagged both the seats it contested. The SP could win only 5 seats whereas the Congress won on 2 seats. The Congress and the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) failed to secure a win on any seat whatsoever.