Sluggish start to Kharif sowing season after delayed monsoon

A slowly advancing, delayed monsoon has resulted in a tepid start to the kharif sowing season. Sowing of paddy and oilseeds so far has been over an area significantly lower than the corresponding area last year at this time.

According to data released by agriculture ministry on Friday, paddy had been sown on 238,000 hectare as on June 13, down 70 per cent from 794,000 hectare sown around the same period last year. Oilseeds, another major kharif crop have been sown on 78,000 hectare, down 50 per cent from 157,000 hectare in the same period last year.

While the food crops are lagging behind, sowing of sugarcane and cotton has been more than last year. As on June 13, sugarcane had been sown on 4.35 million hectare against 4.20 million hectare last year. Similarly, cotton had been sown on 1.73 million hectare compared to 1.58 million hectare last year.  

This year, the monsoon arrived on June 6, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). The onset of the southwest monsoon in Kerala signals the arrival of monsoon over the Indian subcontinent. The normal date for onset of monsoon is June 1, which was also the date it arrived last year.

Earlier this week, the IMD scaled down its monsoon forecast from 95 per cent (announced in April) of the long-period average (LPA) to 93 per cent. LPA is the average rainfall received over a period of last 50 years. IMD said that almost the entire country, except the North East, is expected to receive less than normal rain.

Most affected will be the northwestern states of Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, Chandigarh and Uttar Pradesh as these may get 85 per cent of the LPA during the June-September monsoon season. Accordingly, crops like paddy, pulses, sugarcane and coarse cereals may suffer. Rainfall across the country between June 1 and 8, the first week of the season, was almost 44 per cent less than normal. A report from private forecaster Skymet on Friday, however, said that rain will gradually pick up from now across the country.

Monsoon is a vital determinant of food inflation as it is critical for sowing of kharif crops like paddy, oilseeds, pulses, onions, etc. Cotton is also dependant on the monsoon and so is the fate of the textile industry.  A good kharif sowing and harvest decides the trend of food inflation during the second half of a calendar year.