Fall of three BJP bastions has a message for PM Modi

The Hindi heartland states--Madhya Pradesh (MP), Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, where Congress is forming governments, indicates how they are likely to vote in the Lok Sabha election 2019. First point is that these states voted for the same political party in the previous three national elections that they voted for in the preceded legislative assembly elections. MP and Chhattisgarh voted completely in favour of BJP in the state elections in 2003, 2008 and 2013, but when it came to Lok Sabha in the following years, the vote share further increased between 5-10 per cent for BJP. Rajasthan, voted for BJP in the same manner in 2004 and 2014 national elections and for Congress in 2009.

Here the question is whether they will vote more explicitly for Congress in 2019 election? The popular perception is that state and central elections are fought in completely different set of issues. But the statistics indicate that voters prefer the same political party for both state and centre, at least in these three states.

The previous trends in Madhya Pradesh (MP) show that the voters carry forward the same perception while going for the Lok Sabha election. In the last three Lok Sabha elections, the voters decisively voted in favour of BJP -- Congress put up a better fight in 2009, but BJP was 4 seats ahead. These were less than one year after the assembly elections, in which the pattern was the same. In 2004 and 2009 national elections, Congress-led government came to power, but MP voted against the national trend.

So the trend indicates that Congress is expected to dramatically improve its Lok Sabha seat numbers in MP from 3 to almost half of total 29 seats and it may not be one-sided. As the influencing factors in the 2018 assembly election, it will be Narendra Modi, Rahul Gandhi, agrarian crisis, lack of jobs and some corruptions will dominate voters' mind.

In the assembly election in 2003, when Congress faced the highest anti-incumbency of previous 10 years of Digvijaya Singh government's rule, BJP had bagged a sweeping victory, winning 173 seats with a vote share of 42.50 per cent. Uma Bharti was the campaign leader and the she sworn in as the chief minister. Congress won just 38 seats with 31.61 per cent vote share.

But MP had seen three CMs in that five-year term. Uma Bharti quit a year after she sworn in because of her alleged involvement in the riot in Hubli. Soon after, she had a public fall out with Advani during a meeting at the BJP headquarters and it led to her suspension from the party. Followed by Uma Bharti, BJP appointed Babulal Gaur as the CM of MP for over a year. Shivraj Singh Chouhan came into the picture after Gaur quit in November 2005.

When it came to the Lok Sabha election in May 2004, BJP continued the sweep with 25 seats of the total 29, leaving Congress at just 4. The influential factors were the then incumbent AB Vajpayee government's 'India Shining' campaign and the young leadership under firebrand Uma Bharti in the state.

In 2008 assembly election, BJP had won 143 seats, while Congress under the leadership of senior leader Suresh Pachouri won 71 seats and the popular vote share was 37.64 per cent and 32.30 per cent, respectively. But when it came to Lok Sabha election in the next year, BJP had won 16 seats out of the 29 under the leadership of L.K. Advani and the vote share was 48.13 per cent. Congress had managed to win 12 seats with a vote share of 34.07 per cent, while BSP captured the last one.

In the November 2013 state election, Chouhan improved the tally when corruption allegations were looming large over the Congress-led government at the centre and amidst the fragmented state Congress leadership. BJP swept 165 seats with a vote share of 44.88 per cent and Congress' share was 58 seats (36.38 per cent vote share). The same trend repeated in the Lok Sabha election in 2014, when Narendra Modi was BJP's flag-bearer. BJP won 26 seats against 3 of Congress.

BJP under Vasundhara Raje's leadership won the state election in Rajasthan in 2003. BJP bagged 120 seats riding on anti-incumbency and the incumbent CM Ashok Gehlot-led Congress managed to win just 56 seats. In the following year, the voters stood with Vajpayee-led BJP in the national election, giving them 21 of the total 25 seats. The same pattern repeated in the following assembly and national elections--- voted for Congress in the state (96 seats of the 200 & 36.82 per cent vote share) and the centre (20 out of 25 & 47.19 per cent vote share).

In the 2013 assembly election, in which Raje made a comeback with a clean sweep of 163 seats (45.17 per cent vote share), Congress had decimated to 21 seats (33.07 per cent). It repeated in the following year and Congress couldn't win a single Lok Sabha seat from the state. BJP bagged the entire 24 seats that went for voting in the state.

Chhattisgarh election pattern is interesting as there is no change, literally, in the three assembly and Lok Sabha elections between 2003 and 2014. In the 2003 legislative assembly election, Raman Singh-led BJP came to power with 50 seats and 39.26 per cent vote share. Congress' tally was 37 and 36.71 per cent, respectively. But in the Lok Sabha election, it was BJP's sweep with 10 out of 11. The trend continued the same in the following elections in 2008 & 2009 with BJP scoring the same numbers in the assembly and Lok Sabha. The numbers are miraculously same in 2013 and 2014 elections.

Now the only elected CM of Chhattisgarh since its formation, Raman Singh is out. Chouhan and Raje have become powerless and it will impact the election campaigning in 2019. It will be interesting to see how Modi-Amit Shah duo will take up this challenge.